地铁开通有助于城市数字产业发展吗?——基于双重机器学习的因果推断  

Can Subway Opening Drive Urban DigitalIndustry Development?—An Empirical Study Based on Causal Inference of Double Machine Learning

作　　者：毛丰付[1] 高雨晨 王远帆 MAO Fengfu;GAO Yuchen;WANG Yuanfan(School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《商学研究》2025年第2期29-40,共12页Commercial Science Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“基于机器学习的高潜能未来产业识别与发展路径研究”(24YJA790043);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“数字化转型视角下城市经济韧性研究:浙江经验”(Z24G030005)。

摘　　要：地铁对产业发展的作用存在“增长”与“迁移”两种观点的争论。已有研究在识别方法及数据粒度上较为粗略,未能充分且有效地进行评估。本文基于2003—2019年中国70个大中城市的地铁开通和数字产业发展数据集,运用双重机器学习的因果推断模型,有效识别了地铁开通对数字产业发展的影响与作用机制。研究结果表明:地铁开通显著促进了城市数字产业发展,这一效应因时期、城市结构及行业类型而异。在数字产业初期、单中心城市结构及服务型数字行业中,这种促进作用尤为显著。而地铁开通对数字人才的吸引和土地利用效率的提升是这一正向影响的重要机制。本研究为政府合理规划城市地铁建设、高效推动数字产业发展提供政策依据。The role of metro in industrial development has been debated as either“growth”or“displacement”.Existing studies have failed to adequately assessed this issue due to rough identification methods and data granularity.In this paper,based on the dataset of subway opening and the development of digital industry in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2003 to 2019,we use the causal inference model of dual machine learning to effectively identify the impact and mechanism of subway opening on digital industry development.The study shows that subway opening significantly promotes urban digital industry development,and this effect varies by period,city structure,and industry type,being particularly significant in the early stage of digital industry development,single-center city structure,and service-oriented digital industry.Subway opening is an important mechanism for attracting digital professionals and improving land use efficiency.The study provides a policy basis for the government to rationally plan urban metro construction and efficiently promote digital industry development.

关 键 词：地铁开通 数字产业 增长效应 双重机器学习 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F570.7F124