“旧燕归巢”:制造业发展能促进劳动力回流吗?  

“Old Swallows Return to Their Nests”:Can the Development of Manufacturing Promote the Return of the Labor Force?

作　　者：李中建[1] 黄秀珍 LI Zhongjian;HUANG Xiuzhen(School of Business,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,郑州450000

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2025年第1期27-36,共10页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BJL074)。

摘　　要：制造业作为国民经济的重要组成部分,对劳动力回流起着重要的推动作用。基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据和《中国城市统计年鉴》等相关数据,利用probit模型和工具变量法,考察了制造业的发展水平对劳动力回流的影响作用及其内在机制。研究发现:第一,制造业的发展对劳动力回流具有显著的正向影响。在进行替换解释变量、更换模型、加入省份控制变量和采用更加稳健的聚类标准误后,研究结论保持不变。第二,制造业的发展通过改善居住环境和就业环境促进劳动力回流。第三,在制造业发展吸引劳动力回流的作用中,年龄较低和年龄较高的劳动力受到的吸引作用更大,非农就业、创业型和务工型的劳动力更容易回流。因此,推动制造业的高质量发展,为外出的劳动力提供更为优质的居住环境和就业环境,对于吸引更多更高质量的劳动力回流,推动县域经济的发展,实现城乡协调发展以及共同富裕都具有重要的现实意义。Manufacturing,as an important component of the national economy,plays a crucial role in promoting the return of labor.This article is based on the 2016 China Labor Force Dynamic Survey data and relevant data such as the China Urban Statistical Yearbook.Using the probit model and instrumental variable method,it examines the impact of the development level of the manufacturing industry on labor force return and its underlying mechanisms.Research findings show that:first,the development of the manufacturing industry has a significant positive impact on the return of labor.After replacing explanatory variables,changing models,adding provincial control variables,and adopting more robust clustering standard errors,the research conclusions remained unchanged.Secondly,the development of the manufacturing industry promotes the return of labor by improving the living and employment environment.Thirdly,in the process of attracting labor force to return to the manufacturing industry,younger and older labor force are more attracted,while non-agricultural employment,entrepreneurial and migrant labor force are more likely to return.Therefore,promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,providing better living and employment environments for migrant workers,attracting more higher-quality labor to return,advancing the development of county-level economies,and achieving coordinated urban-rural development and common prosperity carry significant practical implications.

关 键 词：制造业发展 劳动力回流 居住环境和就业环境 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]