甘肃省农业碳排放测度及影响因素分析  

Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission Measurement and Influencing Factors in Gansu Province

作　　者：冶若婷 张文政 YE Ruoting;ZHANG Wenzheng(College of Management,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学管理学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2025年第1期53-66,共14页China Forestry Economics

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标的战略指引下,聚焦于甘肃省,深入分析其农业生产的碳足迹。研究的核心在于识别并关注数个关键的碳排放源头,这些源头主要包括农田土壤利用、农业资源投入、主要粮食作物、畜牧业四类碳排放源。采用国际通行的IPCC碳排放系数法,对甘肃省2012—2022年间的农业碳排放进行了详尽的量化测算。进一步地,利用LMDI模型对影响碳排放的关键因素进行了系统分析。结果显示,农业资源投入所产生的碳排放,占甘肃省农业碳排放总量的59.53%。最终,结合本次测算得到的碳排放源以及影响因素:农业产业结构、人均生产总值因素、城镇化水平因素是影响甘肃省农业碳排放的主要驱动因素。为甘肃省的农业碳减排提出了切实可行的建议,旨在为甘肃省乃至更广泛的地区提供农业低碳发展的参考与借鉴。Under the strategic guidance of the“dual carbon”goal,we focuses on Gansu Province and analyzes its carbon footprint of agricultural production in depth.The core of the study is to identify and examine several key carbon emission sources,which mainly include farmland soil use,agricultural resource input,main food crops,and animal husbandry.The IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was adopted to quantitatively measure agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2012 to 2022.Further,the LMDI model is used to systematically analyze the key factors affecting carbon emissions.The results showed that the carbon emissions from agricultural resource input accounted for 59.53%of the total agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province.Finally,based on the carbon emission sources and influencing factors obtained in this study,agricultural industrial structure,per capita GDP,and urbanization level are identified as the main driving factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province.We proposes feasible suggestions for agricultural carbon reduction in Gansu Province,aiming to provide references for agricultural low-carbon development in the province and even wider regions.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 LMDI模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]