福建烤烟不同生育期雹灾风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Hail Damage at Different Growth Stages of Flue-Cured Tobacco in Fujian

作　　者：刘君 杜超凡 林梦凡 肖秀珠 陈家金 LIU Jun;DU Chaofan;LIN Mengfan;XIAO Xiuzhu;CHEN Jiajin(Longyan Meteorological Bureau of Fujian Province,Longyan 364000,Fujian,China;Longyan Branch of Fujian Provincial Tobacco Company,Longyan 364000,Fujian,China;Fujian Meteorological Service Center,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省龙岩市气象局,福建龙岩364000 [2]福建省烟草公司龙岩市公司,福建龙岩364000 [3]福建省气象服务中心,福州350001

出　　处：《中国烟草科学》2025年第2期18-25,共8页Chinese Tobacco Science

基　　金：云南省农业基础联合专项(202301BD070001-054);国家自然科学基金项目(32160302、32260541、32160517);河北中烟工业有限责任公司科技项目(2022130000340019)。

摘　　要：为评价福建烤烟不同生育期雹灾风险,提升烤烟雹灾风险预警和人工防雹作业成效,利用福建烟区冰雹发生日数、烤烟种植面积、有效叶数及保险赔偿系数等数据,基于冰雹致灾危险性、烟田暴露性和烟株脆弱性构建雹灾风险评价模型并计算雹灾风险指数,开展烤烟伸根期、旺长期、成熟前期、成熟中期和成熟后期5个生育期的雹灾风险评价。结果表明:福建烤烟旺长期和成熟前期雹灾危险性等级较高,南平南部至龙岩北部的闽赣交界区域的烟田暴露性等级较高,旺长期和成熟前期烟株脆弱性等级高。不同生育期雹灾风险由高到低依次为旺长期>成熟前期>成熟中期>伸根期>成熟后期。旺长期和成熟前期是雹灾高危险性与烟株高脆弱性时段,需要加强灾害防御。大田全生育期综合雹灾风险总体以轻度等级为主,中度以上雹灾风险区域位于武夷山脉南侧闽赣两省交界一带,应适当优化烤烟种植布局。The risk of hail damage was assessed based on days of hail occurrence,tobacco planting area,effective leaf number,and insurance compensation coefficient in Fujian.The hail damage risk index was calculated with the risk of hail damage,tobacco field exposure,and tobacco plant vulnerability.The hail damage risk assessment was carried out for five growth stages of tobacco,including root extension period,vigorous growth period,early maturity period,middle maturity period,and late maturity period.The results showed that the risk level of Fujian tobacco during the vigorous growth period and early maturity period was higher,and the exposure level of hail damage in the border area between southern Nanping and northern Longyan was higher.The vulnerability level of tobacco plants during the vigorous growth period and early maturity period was also higher.The risk of hail damage from high to low is in the order of vigorous growth period>early maturity period>middle maturity period>root extension period>late maturity period.The vigorous growth period and early maturity period are high-risk periods for hail damage and high vulnerability,so the disaster prevention measures needs to be strengthened at these stages.The comprehensive hail damage risk in the whole growth period is mild,and the moderate and above hail damage risk area is located in the border area of Fujian and Jiangxi Province,so the layout of flue-cured tobacco planting should be properly optimized.

关 键 词：烤烟 雹灾 不同生育期 风险评价 评价模型 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业] P426.64[农业科学—作物学]