基于贝叶斯回归模型的2023—2024赛季CBA总决赛辽宁队制胜因素分析  

Winning Determinants for the Liaoning Team in the 2023-2024 CBA Finals Based on Bayesian Regression Model

作　　者：杨苏杭 罗诗凌 Yang Suhang;Luo Shiling(School of Physical Education,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学体育学院,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2025年第3期38-41,116,共5页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：本文采用文献资料法、录像观察法、数理统计法等研究方法,运用贝叶斯回归模型,基于篮球“四要素”(有效命中率、失误率、前场篮板率、罚球率),对2023—2024赛季CBA总决赛辽宁本钢队(以下简称辽宁队)与新疆伊力特队(以下简称新疆队)的4场比赛进行分析,以揭示辽宁队的制胜因素。结果显示:有效命中率(EFG)影响最大,前场篮板率(ORB)次之,罚球率(FTR)最小,而失误率(TOV)与得分呈负相关。结论:多点开花的得分能力是辽宁队总决赛的关键制胜因素;稳定的防守表现是制胜的重要因素,辽宁队在防守篮板上表现优异,有效减少对手二次进攻机会,尽管辽宁队的场均失误次数略高于新疆队,但及时退防落位限制了对方的反击;教练团队的战术指导和临场指挥是制胜的重要因素;丰富的总决赛经验,为辽宁队夺冠创造了先决条件;辽宁队深厚的球队底蕴,是取胜的重要保障。建议:辽宁队需通过强化投篮、控制失误、提升篮板率和罚球率,以及优化战术灵活性、球员轮换、心理素质和伤病管理等多个方面进一步提升整体竞争力。This study employs literature research method,video observation,and mathematical statistics,utilizing a Bayesian regression model based on basketball's Four Key Factors(effective hit rate,error rate,front court rebounding rate,free throw rate)to analyze four games from the 2023-2024 CBA Finals between the Liaoning Bengang team(“Liaoning”)and the Xinjiang Yilite team(“Xinjiang”),aiming to identify Liaoning's winning determinants.Effective field goal percentage(FG)had the strongest positive impact,followed by offensive rebound rate(ORB),while free throw rate(FTR)had the weakest influence.Turnover rate(TOV)negatively correlated with scoring.Multi-point scoring ability was pivotal to Liaoning's success in the Finals.Defensive stability,particularly superior defensive rebounding to limit opponents'second-chance opportunities,offset their slightly higher turnovers per game by neutralizing Xinjiang's fast breaks.Coaching staff's tactical guidance and in-game adjustments played a critical role.Rich Finals experience provided a competitive edge.Deep-rooted team culture ensured resilience.Liaoning should enhance shooting accuracy,reduce turnovers,improve rebounding and free throw efficiency,optimize tactical flexibility,refine player rotation strategies,strengthen mental resilience,and improve injury management to sustain dominance.

关 键 词：CBA总决赛 辽宁队 制胜因素 贝叶斯回归模型 

分 类 号：G841[文化科学—体育训练]