数字贸易发展的空间特征及其演变——基于新质生产力视角  

Spatial Characteristics and Evolution of Digital Trade Development:From the Perspective of New Quality Productive Forces

作　　者：吕伊姝 王孝松[2] LYU Yishu;WANG Xiaosong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2025年第4期122-143,共22页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“大国竞合背景下的产业链韧性研究”(72333004),项目负责人:王孝松。

摘　　要：充分释放新质生产力赋能数字贸易发展的潜能,是推动新质生产力数字化应用的关键举措。本文基于新质生产力的数字化要义,利用中国2011—2019年30个省(区、市)的面板数据,通过构建数字贸易发展水平的核算指标体系,并从时间、空间、区域、异质性、集聚性相关性等多维度剖析数字贸易的新质生产力发展特征与演变规律。研究发现:数字贸易新质生产力发展水平整体呈现逐年递增的态势,但是四大地区和五大经济带则存在显著的差异性,区域间和区域内的差异并存;空间上表现为“东部-中部-东北-西部”与“沿海-内陆”的递减趋势,大部分地区保持在低水平且长期无跃迁的稳定状态,数字贸易发展的不平衡、不充分、低水平等问题依然显著。研究建议:充分释放新质生产力数字发展潜力;优化数字贸易发展载体,减少各地区的数字基础设备之间的落差;推动数字服务贸易,改善对外贸易条件。Fully releasing the potential of new quality productive forces to enable the development of digital trade is a key measure to promote the digital application of new quality productive forces.Based on the digital essence of the new quality productive forces,this paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2011 to 2019 to build a calculation index system for the development level of digital trade and analyzes the development characteristics and evolution rules of the new quality productive forces of digital trade from multiple dimensions such as time,space,region,heterogeneity,and agglomeration correlation.The results show that the overall development level of new quality productive forces in digital trade shows an increasing trend year by year,but there are significant differences in four major regions and five economic belets,and the main reason is the inter-regional and intra-regional differences.In terms of space,it shows a decreasing trend of“eastern-central-northeast-western”and“coastal-inland”,and most regions remain in a stable state of low level and no transition for a long time,and problems such as unbalanced,inadequate,and low level of digital trade development are still significant.Based on the research findings,it is suggested that:First,fully releasing the digital development potential of new quality productive forces.Second,optimizing the digital trade development carrier to reduce the gap between digital infrastructure in different regions.Third,promoting digital service trade to improve foreign trade terms.

关 键 词：数字贸易 新质生产力 泰尔指数 局部莫兰指数 区域差异 

分 类 号：F740.6[经济管理—国际贸易]