基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的人员密集场所踩踏事故风险研究  

Research on risk of stampede accident in crowded places based on AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

作　　者：李栋梁 王铁 琚青霖 LI Dongliang;WANG Tie;JU Qinglin(COFCO Grains Holdings Limited Company,Beijing 100020,China;School of Resources and Civil Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110819,China)

机构地区：[1]中粮粮谷控股有限公司,北京100020 [2]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第5期24-29,共6页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：为降低人员密集场所发生踩踏事故的风险,首先以事故致因理论为基础,辨识了人员密集场所踩踏事故危险有害因素,构建了踩踏事故的故障树模型,并对其开展了定性与定量分析。结果表明“信息堵塞”和“人群疏散不力”是影响踩踏事故发生的主要因素。然后从人员、设备、环境和管理4个方面建立了人员密集场所踩踏事故评价指标体系,并应用层次分析法(AHP)-模糊综合评价法构建了人员密集场所踩踏事故的模糊综合评价模型。最后以某商业综合体为实例进行验证,结果表明其踩踏事故的风险等级为“较安全”,验证了评价模型的可行性。In order to reduce the risk of stampede accidents in crowded places,firstly,based on the theory of accident causation,this study identified the hazardous factors of stampede accidents in crowded places,constructed fault tree model of stampede accidents,and carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis on it.The results show that“information blockage”and“poor crowd evacuation”are the main factors affecting the occurrence of stampede accidents.Subsequently,the evaluation index system of stampede accidents in crowded places was established,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of stampede accidents in crowded places was constructed by applying the hierarchical analysis method(AHP)-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method from the four aspects of personnel,equipment,environment and management.Finally,a commercial complex is used as an example for verification,and the results show that the risk level of the stampede accident is“safer”,which verifies the feasibility of the evaluation model.

关 键 词：人员密集场所 踩踏 故障树分析 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]