水源地碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素研究——以汉江流域为例  

Spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission in water sources--Taking the Han River Basin as an example

作　　者：张乐 张玲玲[1] ZHANG Le;ZHANG Lingling(School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 210000)

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,南京210000

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2025年第2期25-33,共9页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72074068)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标背景下,研究县域碳排放的时空格局以及影响因素,对推进碳减排、低碳转型以及对地方制定相关调控政策具有重要意义。以南水北调中线工程水源地汉江流域为研究对象,基于IPCC方法和NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据,估算得出2013—2022年汉江流域67个区县的碳排放量并分析其时空演变特征,运用空间自相关分析探讨流域县域碳排放相关性,并利用地理探测器和地理加权回归模型探究其影响因素。结果表明:2013—2022年汉江流域县域碳排放量总体呈波动上升趋势,并呈现东西高、中间低的空间分布格局;2013—2022年汉江流域县域碳排放均呈现显著空间聚集,局部空间相关性聚集特征在时间和空间上相对稳定;人口密度、社会消费品零售总额、城镇化率、粮食总产量、一般公共预算支出与汉江流域碳排放水平存在相关性,且分别具有不同的空间分异特征。Under the background of the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goals,studying the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level and their influencing factors is of great significance for promoting carbon emission reduction,low-carbon transformation,and the formulation of relevant regulatory policies at the local level.The Han River Basin,which serves as the water source of the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,was taken as the research object.Based on the IPCC method and NPP-VIIRS nighttime lighting data,the carbon emissions of 67 districts and counties in the Han River Basin from 2013 to 2022 were estimated,and their spatial and temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed.Spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to explore the correlation of carbon emissions in the counties of the basin,and the geographical detector and geographical weighted regression model were utilized to explore the influencing factors.The results show that from 2013 to 2022,the carbon emissions at the county level in the Han River Basin generally showed a fluctuating upward trend,and a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and west and low in the middle was presented.From 2013 to 2022,the carbon emissions at the county level in the Han River Basin all exhibited significant spatial aggregation,and the characteristics of local spatial correlation aggregation were relatively stable in terms of time and space.Population density,total retail sales of social consumer goods,urbanization rate,total grain output,and general public budget expenditure were found to be correlated with the carbon emission levels in the Han River Basin,and each of them respectively had different spatial differentiation characteristics.

关 键 词：碳排放 水源地 夜间灯光数据 地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]