越南红河三角洲海水入侵风险评估研究  

Risk assessment of seawater intrusion in the Red River Delta of Vietnam

作　　者：解晓茹 刘若男 王冠勋 余静 范永斌 张坤珵 吴姗姗[1] 滕欣[1] XIE Xiaoru;LIU Ruonan;WANG Guanxun;YU Jing;FAN Yongbin;ZHANG Kuncheng;WU Shanshan;TENG Xin(National Ocean Technology Center,Tianjin 300112,China;School of Marine Science and Technology,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Qingdao Marine Management and Support Center,Qingdao 266000,China;School of Marxism,Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋技术中心,天津300112 [2]天津大学海洋科学与技术学院,天津300072 [3]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,青岛266100 [4]青岛市海洋管理保障中心,青岛266000 [5]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,马克思主义学院军事教学部,青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋地质前沿》2025年第4期16-26,共11页Marine Geology Frontiers

基　　金：自然资源部海岸带科学与综合管理重点实验室开放基金项目(2022COSIMQ002);山东省高等学校“青创团队计划”(2022RW13);亚洲合作资金项目“长江三角洲与红河三角洲海洋地质环境与灾害合作研究”,“中印尼海洋与气候中心发展”(C3240YN02);蓝色伙伴关系背景下海洋空间规划国际合作技术路径与实践(C3220C004);柬埔寨海岸带保护与利用规划编制研究(Y2200C002)。

摘　　要：越南红河三角洲是海水入侵的脆弱区,其海水入侵灾害风险评估对区域防灾减灾至关重要。本文开展了海水入侵灾害风险评价指标体系和灾害风险指数的构建方法研究,综合评估了红河三角洲沿海的海防市、太平省、南定省和宁平省的灾害风险及空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)灾害风险指数介于0.35~0.67,整体处于较低—较高水平,空间上呈由东南沿海向西北内陆递减的趋势;(2)危险性指数介于0.22~0.53,整体处于较低—中等水平,南定省沿海地区、海防市和太平省为高危险区;(3)暴露性指数介于0.20~0.87,整体处于较低—高等水平,且研究区的暴露性差异较大,南定省和宁平省东部沿海暴露性较高;(4)脆弱性指数介于0.50~0.79,整体处于中等—较高水平,宁平省的脆弱性较突出;(5)海水入侵灾害风险主要受到区域社会经济系统的暴露性和脆弱性影响。应对不同区域特征有针对性的采取防灾减灾措施。本研究可为红河三角洲海水入侵防灾减灾提供参考与支撑。The Red River Delta(RRD) in Vietnam is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion,on which the disaster risk assessment is essential for effective regional disaster prevention and mitigation.We developed a comprehensive indicator system for assessing seawater intrusion risks by analyzing the disaster risks and their spatial distribution across the provinces of Hai Phong,Thai Binh,Nam Dinh,and Ninh Binh.Results show that:(1) The disaster risk levels range from 0.35 to 0.67,reflecting a relatively low to relatively high risk level,with a decreasing trend from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern inland areas;(2) The hazard indicators range from0.22 to 0.53,indicating relatively low to moderate level,with high-risk areas concentrated along the coasts of Nam Dinh,Hai Phong,and Thai Binh;(3) The exposure indicators span from 0.20 to 0.87,showing relatively low to high level of exposure,with elevated levels in the eastern coastal regions of Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh;(4) The vulnerability indicators range from 0.50 to 0.79,indicating moderate to relatively high vulnerability,with the highest vulnerability observed in Ninn Binh;(5) The risk of seawater intrusion disasters is mainly affected by the exposure and vulnerability of regional socio-economic systems,to which we shall consider the need for region-specific disaster prevention and mitigation measures.This study provided a critical insight for enhancing disaster resilience against seawater intrusion in the RRD.

关 键 词：海水入侵 灾害风险 红河三角洲 风险评估 

分 类 号：P748[天文地球—海洋科学]