气候变暖背景下中国马拉松赛事高温暴露预警与评估  

Early Warning and Assessment of Chinese Marathon Events'Exposure to High Temperature under Climate Warming

作　　者：蔚丹丹 石勇 陈淑曼 梅煜茹 Yu Dandan;Shi Yong;Chen Shuman;Mei Yuru(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Sports,Shanghai 200438,China)

机构地区：[1]上海体育大学经济管理学院,上海200438

出　　处：《热带地理》2025年第4期575-588,共14页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171080、41601566);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(21YJC630146)。

摘　　要：全球气候变暖加剧了中国马拉松赛事的高温暴露风险。高温环境不仅威胁运动员健康安全,还可能对赛事的组织策略和体育产业的可持续性发展造成深远影响,因此马拉松赛事的高温风险管理成为亟待关注的重点。针对当前高温预警体系在运动场景中阈值设定的缺失,以及缺乏统一、详尽的标准规范,文章基于湿球黑球温度(WBGT)构建了红色、橙色和黄色三级精细化高温暴露预警体系,并基于该系统分析马拉松赛事高温暴露的时空分布特征及演变趋势,结果发现,中国马拉松赛事高温暴露呈现出显著的地域差异,预警期整体呈现“南长北短”的空间格局。此外,对比1961-1990年的历史参照期,1991-2020年的当前基准期内,全国大部分地区的高温暴露期显著延长,尤其是红色预警期,反映出极端高温事件频率和强度的持续上升趋势。为全面评估高温暴露,文章创新性地从暴露强度、暴露数量和暴露价值3个维度完善马拉松高温暴露框架并提出高温暴露指数(Marathon Exposure Index,MEI)。本研究成果可扩展至其他户外运动项目,为应对气候变化背景下的公共体育活动安全治理提供理论工具与实践范式。In recent years,the number of marathons in China has expanded rapidly,but the impact of high-temperature weather has become more apparent.Current high-temperature early warning systems lack tailored thresholds and unified standards for sports scenarios.This study aimed to develop an advanced early warning system for high-temperature exposure during marathons to enhance event safety and sustainability.The urgency of addressing high-temperature risks in sporting events is underscored by an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events.These events not only threaten participants'health,but also challenge the organizational resilience of sporting events.Traditional early warning systems,designed primarily for general public health protection,fall short of providing the specificity required for sports settings.This study addresses this gap by proposing a refined early warning framework that is sensitive to the unique demands of marathons.Methodologically,this research moves beyond the limitations of a single air temperature index by employing the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature(WBGT)as the primary indicator for thermal environment assessment.WBGT is recognized as a comprehensive metric that integrates temperature,humidity,and radiant heat,making it more suitable for evaluating heat stress during outdoor activities.By analyzing the relationship between human thermal comfort and meteorological factors,the study maps the Thermal Humidity Index(THI)sensory grading criteria to the WBGT system,creating a dynamic"red-orange-yellow"three-level early-warning system.The threshold setting considered the metabolic heat accumulation of marathoners during prolonged activity and was validated using six decades of national-scale meteorological data.Based on this,this study introduced the Marathon Exposure Index(MEI),which quantifies risks from three dimensions:exposure intensity(early warning level weight),exposure quantity(event frequency),and exposure value(event-grade coefficient).Results indicate a significant"long-sou

关 键 词：气候变化 马拉松赛事 体育赛事 高温暴露 湿球黑球温度 预警等级 

分 类 号：G861.4[文化科学—体育训练] R122.21[文化科学—体育学]