基于CMIP6的广西西江流域未来干旱变化特征与人口暴露度预估  

Future Drought Change Characteristics and Population Exposure Estimation in the Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi Based on CMIP6

作　　者：秦年秀 文凤[1] 汪军能 何继业 姜彤 Qin Nianxiu;Wen Feng;Wang Junneng;He Jiye;Jiang Tong(School of Geography Science and Planning,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Resource Utilization in Beibu Gulf,,Nanning 530001,China;School of Geographical Science,Institute of Disaster Risk Management,Nanjing University of lnformation Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁530001 [2]北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,南宁530001 [3]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京210044

出　　处：《热带地理》2025年第4期621-636,共16页Tropical Geography

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2022GXNSFAA035611);广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080060)。

摘　　要：文章利用CMIP6气候模式和人口预测数据,预估了3种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下广西西江流域2021-2100年干旱变化以及人口暴露度。研究发现:1)CMIP6多模式耦合平均法在预测气候变量和干旱事件具有较高有效性。未来,西江流域气温和降水在不同情景下均呈上升趋势,气候变化影响愈发显著。2)通过SPEI指数分析,发现西江流域历史与未来干旱化趋势明显增加,不同情景下未来干旱的变化速率、发生时间、频率、强度等特征存在显著差异、变化复杂。低排放情景下干旱有望缓解,而高排放情景下干旱将全面加剧。3)西江流域未来不同程度干旱空间变化差异明显。低排放情景远期干旱基本消失,中等排放情景影响范围和强度均可能加剧,高排放情景则全面恶化,干旱态势严峻。4)人口暴露度与不同排放情景高度相关,低排放情景下人口暴露度显著降低,中、高排放情景下则大幅增加,尤其是远期重旱人口暴露度激增。5)气候变化是影响人口暴露度的主要因素,但人口增长与结构变化亦不容忽视,需制定差异化适应措施,通过积极减排和可持续发展路径降低干旱风险。Under the influence of climate change,drought poses a novel and urgent challenge to sustainable development in the humid regions of southern China.Therefore,it is essential to estimate future drought changes and population exposure comprehensively.Using CMIP6 climate models and population forecast data,we estimated drought variations and population exposure in the Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi from 2021 to 2100 under three scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5).The findings are as follows:(1)By employing Taylor diagrams to evaluate the multi-model ensemble mean method(MME)of 18 CMIP6 climate models,we found that the method effectively simulated temperature and precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin,reducing the uncertainty associated with single-model simulations.Under all future scenarios,temperature and precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin are projected to increase,with effects of climate change becoming more pronounced in this region.(2)Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),we observed a significant increasing trend in aridification in both historical and future periods.Significant differences and complex changes in the rate,occurrence time,frequency,intensity,and other drought characteristics were observed under various scenarios.Droughts are expected to be alleviated under low-emission scenarios but intensify comprehensively under high-emission scenarios.(3)The spatial variability of drought in the Xijiang River Basin will differ significantly under different scenarios.In low-emission scenarios,the intensity and extent of droughts nearly disappear in the long-term.Under medium-emission scenarios,the intensity and extent of droughts may increase.Drought events in this region are severe and worsen comprehensively,under high-emission scenarios,and the long-term impact will be extensive and serious.Drought events in this region are influenced by global climate change and are closely linked to the specific socioeconomic development path of t

关 键 词：干旱变化特征 人口暴露度 CMIP6 SSPs情景 气候变化 广西西江流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]