城市洪涝关键基础设施级联失效的建模研究——以茅洲河流域为例  

Modeling Study on Cascading Failures of Critical Infrastructure in Urban Flooding:A Case Study of the Maozhou River Basin

作　　者：戈心雨 樊冬丽 田展 刘乔丹 吕嘉杰 王燕龙 Ge Xinyu;Fan Dongli;Tian Zhan;Liu Qiaodan;Lyu Jiajie;Wang Yanlong(School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China;School of Environmental,Science&Engineering,South University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of Architecture and Built Environment,Delft University of Technology,Delft 2628BL,Netherlands)

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学化学与环境工程学院,上海201418 [2]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055 [3]代尔夫特理工大学建筑与建成环境学院,代尔夫特2628BL

出　　处：《热带地理》2025年第4期637-647,共11页Tropical Geography

基　　金：粤港澳大湾区响应极端复合洪涝灾害风险机理研究(42430407)。

摘　　要：气候变化背景下城市洪涝灾害日益频发,城市化加剧了关键基础设施间的耦合依赖,其在极端洪涝事件中将面临更高的服务中断风险。文章构建了从洪涝灾害风险传导到社会影响的综合分析框架,包括洪涝过程模拟、关键基础设施级联建模与社会脆弱性评估。以深圳茅洲河流域为案例,基于网络方法构建基础设施系统网络模型,通过Delft3D模型构建多情景淹没,分析基础设施服务中断对城市居民的影响及服务稳定性,研究发现:1)变电站是洪涝引发级联故障的关键节点,模型模拟的电力中断区域与历史验证数据的吻合率达62%,具有较高可信度;2)考虑级联效应后,消防站和派出所受影响数量分别增加了10和6个,通讯和医疗服务中断对城市居民数量的影响更为显著;3)气候变化背景下,洪水对基础设施系统的扰动显著加剧,整体受影响基础设施数量平均提升38%;4)得益于相对合理的空间布局和设施的抗洪能力,茅洲河流域的电力系统、应急响应(涵盖警务和消防)和避难服务表现出一定稳定性。Global climate change has increased the frequency and severity of urban flooding,posing significant risks to critical infrastructure.The resulting disruption of essential services has profoundly impacted the daily lives of urban residents and,in extreme cases,endangered their safety.A systematic framework has been developed to address this,integrating flood process simulation,critical infrastructure modeling,and social vulnerability analysis.This framework elucidates the complex interdependencies among urban infrastructure systems,evaluates the impacts of flood-induced service disruptions on urban populations in the context of climate change,and assesses the resilience of various infrastructure services.The Shenzhen-Maozhou River Basin,prone to flooding,was selected as the study area.Based on the Delft3D model and using the"Mangkhut"typhoon event as a benchmark,rainfall and sea-level rise were selected as uncertainty factors to simulate and identify three future extreme flood scenarios.A network-based approach was employed to construct an infrastructure system network model that included seven types of infrastructure:substations,communication base stations,hospitals,fire stations,police stations,shelters,and water supply plants.The flood simulation results were used as inputs to the infrastructure system network model to obtain the simulation results,which were then analyzed.The results revealed the following.1)Within the system's topological structure,the degree value of substation nodes is significantly higher than that of other facilities,making them a critical node for cascading failures triggered by floods.The power-outage areas simulated by the constructed model demonstrate a 62%concordance rate with the historical validation data,indicating a relatively high credibility level.However,due to the sensitivity and confidentiality of the data,the validation work is not yet sufficient.The types of infrastructure involved in the validation are limited,affecting the model's reliability and parameters.Therefore,in

关 键 词：城市洪涝 气候变化 级联失效 极端洪涝 关键基础设施 社会脆弱性 茅洲河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TU998[建筑科学—市政工程]