居民财务杠杆对消费潜力的影响研究——基于当期消费剩余视角的实证分析  

Research on the Impact of Residents’Financial Leverage on Consumption Potential:An Empirical Analy⁃sis Based on the Current Consumption Surplus Perspective

作　　者：何启志 朱晨 苗硕威 He Qizhi;Zhu Chen;Miao Shuowei

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]河北地质大学经济学院,河北石家庄050030

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2025年第2期19-30,共12页Financial Theory and Practice

基　　金：浙江工商大学商务部促消费专项课题“我国消费市场高质量发展指标体系构建与测度研究”(1020KU1123014)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于当期剩余消费潜力的视角,利用2015—2022年中国省级面板数据构建双向固定效应模型,探讨中国居民财务杠杆率对当期剩余消费潜力的非线性影响,并结合区域异质性、滞后效应和门槛效应展开进一步分析。实证研究发现,第一,中国居民财务杠杆率对当期剩余消费潜力的影响表现为“U”形关系;第二,经济发展水平高、对外贸易发达地区的“U”形效应更显著,居民财务杠杆率对当期剩余消费潜力的影响存在时间滞后效应;第三,收入增长速度和高等教育水平在居民财务杠杆率影响剩余消费潜力的过程中发挥了门槛效应,显著影响剩余消费潜力对财务杠杆水平的反应程度。Based on the perspective of current residual consumption potential,a two-way fixed effect model is constructed by using China’s provincial panel data from 2015 to 2022 to explore the nonlinear impact of China’s residents’financial leverage ratio on the current residual consumption potential,and further analysis is carried out in combination with regional heterogeneity,lag effect and threshold effect.The empirical study found that,first,the impact of Chinese residents’financial leverage ratio on the current residual consumption potential is U-shaped;second,the U-shaped effect is more significant in regions with high economic development level and developed foreign trade,and the impact of residents’financial leverage ratio on the current residual consumption potential has a time lag effect.Third,income growth rate and higher education level play a threshold effect in the process of residents’financial leverage ratio affecting residual consumption potential,which significantly affects the degree of response of residual consumption potential to financial leverage level.

关 键 词：居民财务杠杆 消费潜力 固定效应模型 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]