新劳动:人工智能、技术替代与就业未来  

New Labor:Artificial Intelligence,Technological Substitution and the Future of Employment

作　　者：尹建堃 袁志刚[2] 都阳[3] 张成刚[4,5] 杨力 姚建华[7] 韩克庆[8] Yin Jiankun;Yuan Zhigang;Du Yang;Zhang Chenggang;Yang Li;Yao Jianhua;Han Keqing

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]复旦大学就业与社会保障研究中心 [3]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所 [4]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院 [5]中国新就业形态研究中心 [6]上海交通大学智慧司法研究院 [7]复旦大学新闻学院 [8]中国社会科学院中国式现代化研究院

出　　处：《探索与争鸣》2025年第3期45-75,177,178,共33页Exploration and Free Views

基　　金：中国社会科学院重大新项目“人口就业高质量发展的重大问题研究”(2024YZD014);中国社会科学院研究所实验室综合资助项目“人口仿真与就业监测实验室”(2024SYZH008)阶段性成果;国家社科基金重大项目“数据中国背影下公共数据标准的法治体系研究”(21&ZD200)阶段性成果;上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“新就业形态劳动者权益保障与平台规制研究”(2024BJC020)阶段性成果;中国社会科学院重大交办项目(院马工程专项)“未来十年国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重大理论与实践问题研究”阶段性成果。

摘　　要：面对新一轮科技革命和产业变革的蓬勃发展,新的劳动形态、新的劳动关系、新的劳动结构不断涌现,“新劳动”穿透时空二维,打破体脑之别,渗透心智两端,连接人机二元,带来全新的经济社会景观,也伴生着如“机器换人”“职业结构变迁”等新劳动议题,尤其是生成式人工智能和人形机器人技术的迅猛发展,正在深刻重塑数智时代劳动就业和现实生活的样貌。2024年9月,《探索与争鸣》编辑部与上海财经大学科研处/创业学院、中国劳动学会劳动科学教育分会联合举办“新劳动”圆桌会议,围绕生成式人工智能与新劳动、新劳动的创新与转型。As a crucial factor closely related to people’s livelihood,labor is facing the vigorous development of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation.New labor forms,new labor relations,and new labor structures are constantly emerging.In particular,the rapid development of generative artificial intelligence and humanoid robot technology is profoundly reshaping the appearance of labor employment and real life in the era of digital intelligence.In September 2024,we held a thematic seminar on“New Labor”,focusing on topics such as generative artificial intelligence and new labor,the innovation and transformation of new labor,and the risks and governance of new labor.It is hoped that we can comprehensively examine the evolution of“new labor”,properly handle the dilemmas of“new labor”in a forward-looking manner,and stimulate the potential of“new labor”in the process of Chinese-style modernization.Mr.Yin Jiankun pointed out that the new employment forms catalyzed by new technologies are integrated employment forms.It is urgent to fully promote the high-quality development of new labor forms through measures such as promoting the reform of the regulatory model,defining the responsibilities,rights and interests of multiple market entities,reasonably defining the scope of new employment forms,and attaching importance to employment substitution.Professor Yuan Zhigang believes that the Fourth Industrial Revolution,with technologies such as artificial intelligence at its core,takes“fully and deeply replacing human mental labor”as its mission.It will have a negative employment substitution effect,a positive productivity effect and an employment creation effect on the labor market.The final effect depends on the comprehensive effect of these three effects.Researcher Du Yang believes that the current round of technological innovation represented by DeepSeek increasingly has the characteristics of“revolution”.Labor-saving technological progress,especially the applica

关 键 词：就业未来 生成式人工智能 新劳动 人形机器人 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]