成渝地区双城经济圈旅游业碳排放脱钩态势及影响因素研究  

Research on the decoupling trend and drivers of tourism emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle

作　　者：王贝贝 王小兰[1] 侯兰功[1] 李书琼 WANG Beibei;WANG Xiaolan;HOU Langong;LI Shuqiong(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学土木工程与建筑学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2025年第1期56-67,共12页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41601612);四川省科技厅资助项目(19RKX0384);绵阳市社会科学联合会资助项目(MY2022YB001)。

摘　　要：为探究成渝地区双城经济圈旅游业碳排放和旅游经济之间的脱钩关系,本文采取“自下而上”与“自上而下”相结合的方法,科学测算2006—2023年成渝地区双城经济圈16个城市的旅游业碳排放量,并运用Tapio脱钩模型和地理加权回归模型剖析该经济圈旅游业碳排放脱钩态势及其影响因素。结果表明:①2005-2023年成渝地区双城经济圈旅游业碳排放量整体呈阶段性变化,先上升,再大幅度下降,然后又波动式回升;②该经济圈各市旅游业碳排放量的时序变化明显,2005-2019年各市旅游业碳排放量呈逐年稳步增长态势;③2020-2021年除成都、乐山外,其他城市旅游业碳排放量呈下降趋势;④2022-2023年各市旅游业碳排放量回升;⑤该经济圈旅游业碳排放脱钩整体为弱脱钩状态,旅游业碳排放脱钩态势的空间演变特征为“良劣优良”;⑥该经济圈旅游业碳排放脱钩态势的空间分异是多影响因素共同作用的结果。为此,应联合各市政府、企业及相关旅游主体共同推动成渝地区双城经济圈低碳旅游业的发展,加快区域旅游业碳排放的理想脱钩进程。In order to explore the decoupling relationship between tourism carbon emissions and tourism economy in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,this paper adopts a combination of“bottom-up”and“top-down”methods to scientifically estimate the carbon emissions of tourism in 16 cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from 2006 to 2021,and uses the Tapio decoupling model and geographically weighted regression model to analyze the decoupling trend and influencing factors of tourism carbon emissions in the economic circle.The results show that from 2005 to 2023,tourism carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle as a whole show obvious stage changes,first gradually rising,then significantly declining and then fluctuating back up.The time-order trend of tourism carbon emissions in the cities of the economic circle is obvious from 2005 to 2019,and the carbon emissions from the tourism industry in each city show a steady growth.From 2020 to 2021,except for Chengdu and Leshan,the carbon emissions from the tourism industry in other cities show a decreasing trend.From 2022 to 2023,the carbon emissions from the tourism industry in each city rebound.The economic circle has an overall weak decoupling trend of tourism carbon emissions.The overall decoupling of tourism carbon emissions is a weak decoupling state,with the spatial evolution of the decoupling trend of tourism carbon emissions characterized by“good-inferior-excellent-good”.The spatial differentiation of the decoupling trend of tourism carbon emissions in this economic circle is the result of the joint action of multiple factors.For this reason,we should deepen the advantages of the twin-city driving role and jointly promote the low-carbon development of the tourism industry in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle with the municipal governments,enterprises,and related tourism bodies,so as to accelerate the ideal decoupling process of regional tourism carbon emissions.

关 键 词：旅游业碳排放 脱钩态势 地理加权回归模型 影响因素 成渝地区双城经济圈 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]