超越脱钩:中国的双循环战略与全球经济秩序的重塑  

Beyond Decoupling:Beijing’s Dual Circulation Policy in a Shifting Global Economic Landscape

作　　者：刘洪钟 LIU Hongzhong

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学上海全球治理与区域国别研究院,上海201620

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第3期1-24,176,177,共26页Global Review

摘　　要：自2018年美国发动对华贸易战以来,中美关系进入高度竞争状态。面对美国的遏制与打压,中国努力构建双循环新发展格局,推动经济增长模式从出口导向型向内需驱动型转变,同时积极推动“一带一路”高质量发展、深化区域经贸合作,实现出口和投资多元化,以此缓解外部压力。不过,这一战略在取得显著成效的同时,也造成了部分国家对华贸易摩擦的增加。从理论和历史的角度分析,贸易失衡通过经济非对称依赖、权力竞争、国内政治压力等途径引发国家间的摩擦或冲突。美国对华战略竞争是经济、政治和战略等各种因素复杂交织、相互作用的结果。中国为应对美国打压进行了战略调整,由此导致对美国之外的国家贸易顺差扩大,从而引发贸易摩擦。为此,中国应坚定推进双循环战略,加快内需转型,通过收入分配改革、服务业升级等释放消费潜力;推动出口与进口均衡发展,努力构建区域联动的开放“经济圈”;同时实施“农村包围城市”策略,通过与全球南方国家合作间接施压美国,并主动增加对美进口,推动中美“再挂钩”。Since the United States launched a trade war against China in 2018,China-U.S.relations have entered a phase of heightened strategic competition.In response to U.S.containment and suppression,China has been working to establish a new“dual circulation”development model—shifting its economic growth engine from export dependence toward domestic demand.At the same time,Beijing has actively expanded cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative,deepened regional trade agreements,and diversified its exports and outbound investment in order to mitigate external pressures.While this strategy has produced notable gains,it has also triggered increased trade friction with certain countries.Trade imbalances—driven by asymmetric economic dependence,power rivalry,and domestic political dynamics—can easily give rise to tension or conflict.The U.S.approach to strategic competition with China reflects a complex interplay of economic,political,and security considerations.In turn,China’s strategic adjustments in response to U.S.pressure have widened its trade surplus with partners beyond the United States,contributing to further friction.To navigate this challenging landscape,China should continue to advance the dual circulation strategy with determination.This includes accelerating the shift toward domestic demand,unlocking consumption potential through income redistribution and service sector upgrading,and promoting a more balanced development of imports and exports.Beijing should also work to establish a more open and interconnected regional economic circle.Meanwhile,it can adopt a strategy akin to“encircling the cities from the countryside”—that is,applying indirect pressure on the United States by strengthening ties with Global South countries.Proactively increasing imports from the United States could also serve to promote a gradual“relinking”of the two economies.

关 键 词：大国竞争 贸易失衡 双循环 中美关系 开放经济圈 

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