管理崛起的阶段性起伏与中国可持续崛起的历史创新  

Managing Periodic Fluctuation:Historical Innovations of China’s Sustainable Ascent

作　　者：张春 王海璐 ZHANG Chun;WANG Hailu

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际关系研究院,云南650051

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第3期25-42,177,共19页Global Review

基　　金：研究阐释党的二十大精神国家社科基金重大项目“协调推进全球发展倡议和全球安全倡议路径研究”(23ZDA125)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着大国战略竞争加剧,以“中国崩溃论”为代表的悲观预期被攻击性更强的“中国见顶论”所替代。“中国见顶论”以权势周期理论为基础,强调中国经济增长放缓带来的“战略风险”,特别是中国追求持续崛起可能走向重商主义的风险。“中国见顶论”沿袭了现实主义国际关系理论“崛起国更危险”的假设,但三个基本错误注定其必然失败:第一,其并未遵循权势周期理论客观评估中国的政策实践;第二,其并未超越权势周期理论合理评估中国的决策理性;第三,其并未站在人类命运共同体高度正确理解中国的历史创新。中国对崛起的阶段性起伏的前瞻性认知,主动推动高质量发展转型,强调“大国无战争时代”自身发展活力和多元伙伴关系的根本重要性,以走和平发展道路和让其他国家成为中国崛起“受益者”的历史性创新,不断为中国的可持续崛起奠定坚实的基础。As strategic competition among great powers intensifies,pessimistic forecasts such as the“China Collapse”narrative have increasingly given way to a more assertive“Peak China”or“Peaking China”narrative.Rooted in power cycle theory,this new framing highlights the strategic risks posed by a significant slowdown in China’s growth—particularly the perceived threat that China might adopt mercantilist policies in an effort to reclaim its momentum.Aligned with the realist assumption in international relations that rising powers are inherently more dangerous,the“Peak/Peaking China”narrative is ultimately flawed for three fundamental reasons.First,it fails to objectively assess Beijing’s policy efforts the lens of power cycle theory.Second,it offers an incomplete evaluation of Beijing’s decision-making logic,failing to look beyond the constraints of that same theoretical framework.Third,it misreads the historical innovation behind China’s approach,particularly its vision of building a community with a shared future for humankind.Beijing has long anticipated the potential periodic fluctuation in its rise and has proactively initiated a transition toward high-quality development.This strategic shift emphasizes both the vitality of domestic development and the importance of international network centrality,reflecting an approach suited to an era of great-power competition short of war.By adhering to a path of peaceful development and ensuring that the international community shares in the benefits of China’s rise,Beijing seeks to transform this potential periodic fluctuation into a new starting point for sustainable ascent.

关 键 词：大国崛起 中国见顶论 可持续崛起 中国式现代化 

分 类 号：D5[政治法律—政治学]