结构压力、目标预期与新兴大国合法化战略的分异  

Structural Pressures,Aspirational Goals,and Emerging Powers’Differing Strategies for Legitimization

作　　者：秦立志 谭皓宇 QIN Lizhi;TAN Haoyu

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院,青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛266100 [3]中国海洋大学国际事务研究中心,青岛266100

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第3期43-69,178,共28页Global Review

基　　金：国家社科基金研究专项(24VHQ019)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：为了生存与安全,新兴大国往往需要通过提升合法性地位来优化战略环境,但实现合法化的战略手段并不具有唯一性,既可以偏向于维持国际秩序现状,也存在适度修正国际秩序的可行性。从新古典现实主义的理论视角出发,可以将合法化战略本身进行类型学分析,构建出一个统摄性的因果机制框架。面对不同的体系结构压力,新兴大国将形成差异化的战略目标预期,进而可能选择融入型、桥接型、竞争型、颠覆型的合法化战略手段。战略节奏与战略效果的非线性特征也将影响目标与手段的战略匹配。实证检验选取20世纪70年代至80年代的日本、19世纪末至20世纪20年代的美国、1868年至20世纪20年代的日本、1933年至1945年的德国进行过程追踪。新兴大国应以战略审慎作为目标预期的逻辑起点,在塑造合法化的实践中注重结构压力的时空差异、避免战略行为的僵化,不宜将对手让步完全归因于己方的强硬,防止出现因争夺霸权利益而损害安全利益的本末倒置现象。To survive and ensure their security,emerging powers often seek to enhance their legitimacy in order to optimize their strategic environment.The paths to achieving legitimacy are not singular;they may involve efforts to uphold the existing international order or promote feasible,moderate adjustments.From the perspective of neoclassical realism,legitimization strategies can be classified typologically,enabling the construction of a broader causal framework.In response to varying systemic pressures,emerging powers develop differentiated strategic goal expectations,which in turn shape their choice among strategies of integration,bridging,competition,or subversion.The non-linear nature of both strategic tempo and outcomes further affects the alignment between goals and methods.Empirically,this analysis traces the strategic trajectories of Japan in the 1970s-1980s,the United States from the late 19th century to the 1920s,Japan from 1868 to the 1920s,and Germany from 1933 to 1945.For emerging powers,strategic prudence should serve as the logical starting point when forming expectations of strategic goals.They must account for the spatio-temporal variation in structural pressures during the legitimization process,avoid rigid or doctrinaire strategic behaviors,refrain from over-interpreting an opponent’s concessions as a sign of their own rising strength,and guard against allowing power competition to override core security interests.

关 键 词：国际秩序 权力转移 合法性 大国崛起 战略节奏 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]