“欧洲绿色新政”:成效评估与前景展望  

The European Green Deal:Evaluation and Future Prospects

作　　者：严舒旸 闫烁 YAN Shuyang;YAN Shuo

机构地区：[1]武汉大学国际问题研究院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院,武汉430072

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第3期158-175,182,共19页Global Review

摘　　要：“绿色新政”概念缘起于国际金融危机与气候危机交织的背景下,国际社会对改变不可持续发展模式的迫切希望。在国际竞争加剧、欧盟内部多重危机叠加的背景下,“欧洲绿色新政”是欧盟转变发展模式、重启增长引擎、回应社会关切、摆脱自身困境并重塑国际影响力的战略举措。尽管其出台后接连遭遇新冠疫情与乌克兰危机的严重冲击,舆论对其成效与发展前景的怀疑时有出现,但实证分析表明,欧盟近年来在绿色转型方面仍取得了较好的阶段性成效,展现出该政策较强的制度韧性与适应能力。在当前世界经济复苏乏力、国际秩序剧烈动荡、欧洲安全和能源稳定难以有效改善,以及政治日趋右倾化的态势下,未来“欧洲绿色新政”在推进过程中无疑将面临诸多挑战。虽然欧盟或难以按期实现其设定的宏大目标,但加快绿色转型已成为国际社会的普遍共识,并日益成为席卷全球的时代浪潮。因此,“欧洲绿色新政”的战略方向不会发生逆转,欧盟绿色转型将在持续调整与不断完善中继续向前推进。Born amid the twin crises of global financial turmoil and escalating climate threats,the concept of a“Green New Deal”reflects a global imperative to overhaul unsustainable development models.The European Green Deal represents the European Union’s bold response—a strategic pivot to transform its economic paradigm,reignite growth,address societal demands,navigate internal crises,and reassert its global influence against a backdrop of intensifying international competition.Despite severe disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,which have fueled skepticism about its efficacy and viability,empirical evidence underscores the EU’s tangible progress in advancing its green transition.This progress highlights the Deal’s institutional resilience and adaptability.Yet,as global economic recovery falters,geopolitical turbulence deepens,European security and energy stability remain precarious,and right-wing political currents gain traction,the Green Deal’s path forward is fraught with challenges.While the EU may struggle to meet its ambitious targets on schedule,the global consensus on accelerating green transitions—now a defining tide of our era—ensures that the Deal’s strategic course will hold firm.The EU’s green transformation will advance through iterative adjustments and steady refinement,shaping both its future and the world’s.

关 键 词：欧洲绿色新政 实施动因 初期成效 前景展望 

分 类 号：D0[政治法律—政治学]