城市群一体化对黄河流域低碳发展的影响机制研究  

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Urban Agglomeration Integration on Low⁃Carbon Development in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：廖乐焕[1] 董燕燕 曹华[1] LIAO Lehuan;DONG Yanyan;CAO Hua(School of Economics and Management(School of Accounting),Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济与管理学院(会计学院),云南昆明650500

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第5期15-21,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(23JL063);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72364038);云南民族大学研究生科研创新基金资助项目(2024SKY046)。

摘　　要：黄河流域以能源为主的工业结构和以煤炭为主的能源消费导致的大气和水环境污染问题,是绿色低碳高质量发展的制约因素之一;城市群一体化是通过多个城市在经济、社会、基础设施、环境保护等方面的协同从而提升整体可持续发展能力的过程,截至2023年年底国务院批准建设的国家级城市群中有4个分布在黄河流域。为了探讨城市群一体化对黄河流域低碳发展的影响,在理论机制分析的基础上,基于2011—2022年黄河流域80个地级市的面板数据,把国家级城市群政策的实施作为一项准自然实验,即把黄河流域列入4个国家级城市群发展规划的地级市作为实验组、其余地级市作为对照组,采用多期双重差分模型进行回归,探讨了城市群一体化对黄河流域低碳发展的影响,并进行了平行趋势检验、稳健性检验、机制检验、空间溢出效应检验等。结果表明:1)城市群一体化能够显著促进黄河流域低碳发展;2)城市群一体化通过推动产业结构升级和技术创新促进黄河流域低碳发展,人力资本和环境规制对城市群一体化促进低碳发展具有显著的正向调节作用;3)城市群一体化对低碳发展的影响具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,空间溢出效应的地理距离阈值为200km。提出了进一步全方位推进城市群一体化发展、提升政府效能、疏通产业结构升级和技术创新两种中介渠道、充分发挥人力资本和环境规制的调节作用等建议。The air and water environmental pollution problems caused by the energy⁃based industrial structure and coal⁃based energy con⁃sumption in the Yellow River Basin are one of the constraining factors for green,low⁃carbon,and high⁃quality development.Urban agglomer⁃ation integration is a process in which multiple cities collaborate in the economic,social,infrastructure,environmental protection and other aspects to enhance the overall sustainable development ability.As of 2023,there are four national⁃level urban agglomerations approved by the State Council located in the Yellow River Basin.In order to explore the impact of urban agglomeration integration on low⁃carbon development in the Yellow River Basin,based on the theoretical mechanism analysis and the panel data of 80 prefecture⁃level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2022,the implementation of the national⁃level urban agglomeration policy was regarded as a quasi⁃natural experiment.That is,the prefecture⁃level cities in the Yellow River Basin included in the development plans of the four national⁃level urban agglomerations were taken as the experimental group,and the remaining prefecture⁃level cities as the control group.A multi⁃period difference⁃in⁃differences model was used for regression to explore the impact of urban agglomeration integration on low⁃carbon development in the Yellow River Basin,and parallel trend tests,robustness tests,mechanism tests,and spatial spillover effect tests were carried out.The results show that:a)Urban agglomeration integration can significantly promote low⁃carbon development in the Yellow River Basin;b)Urban agglomeration integration promotes low⁃carbon development in the Yellow River Basin by promoting industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation.Human capital and environmental regulation have a significant positive regulatory effect on the promotion of low⁃carbon development by urban agglom⁃eration integration;c)The impact of urban agglomeration integration o

关 键 词：城市群一体化 低碳发展 多期双重差分模型 机制检验 空间溢出效应 黄河流域 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济] F127[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1