新疆南疆水资源承载力评价预测及时空关联格局研究  

Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Southern Xinjiang and a Study on the Pattern of Spatial⁃Temporal Correlation

作　　者：胡宝华[1] 刘凯鑫 晁伟鹏[1] 杨兵红 邓财源 HU Baohua;LIU Kaixin;CHAO Weipeng;YANG Binghong;DENG Caiyuan(Faculty of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第5期87-92,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：兵团创新研究团队项目(TDZKCX202313);兵团维稳戍边智库项目(22BTZK08)。

摘　　要：为探究南疆五地(州)水资源承载力时空关联格局及趋势,构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法与Hoit-Winter模型对新疆南疆五地(州)水资源承载力进行评价与预测分析,并利用GIS软件对区域水资源承载力的关联格局进行描述。结果显示:1)2015—2021年南疆地区水资源承载力等级介于短缺与合理之间,巴州水资源承载力变化最大,喀什次之,克州最为稳定;2)喀什地区水资源承载力提升较快,未来有望达到充裕等级,其他地区变化不大;3)2015—2026年南疆水资源承载力在空间上呈现一定程度的分散格局,阿克苏地区水资源承载力很多时候出现高-低值分散,和田地区一直为低-高值分散,克州未来极有可能出现低-高值分散,而巴州和喀什地区水资源承载力呈现随机分布(与其他地区无直接关联)。南疆经济的发展应建立在产业结构优化、水资源利用效率提升和生态价值转换等基础之上,打造节水环保、量水而行的特色经济发展模式。In order to explore the spatial⁃temporal correlation pattern and the trend of water resources carrying capacity in the five prefectures of southern Xinjiang,a comprehensive evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity was built,and the entropy⁃TOPSIS method and Hoit⁃Winter model were used to evaluate and predict the water resources status of five prefectures in southern Xinjiang.GIS software was used to describe the correlation characteristics of regional water resources carrying capacity.The results show that a)the water resources in south⁃ern Xinjiang are in a state of scarcity and reasonable marginal carrying capacity,and the water resources carrying capacity of Bazhou changes the most,followed by Kashgar,and Kezhou is the most stable.b)The carrying capacity of water resources in Kashgar has increased rapidly,and it is expected to reach the level of abundance in the future,while there is little change in other regions.c)From 2015 to 2026,the water resources carrying capacity of southern Xinjiang shows a certain degree of spatial dispersion,and the water resources carrying capacity of Ak⁃su region is often dispersed with high and low values,and the water resources carrying capacity in Hotan area is always scattered with low to high values,and it is very likely that there will be low⁃high value dispersion in Kezhou in the future,while the water resources carrying ca⁃pacity of Bazhou and Kashgar shows a random distribution(not directly related to other regions).The economic development of southern Xin⁃jiang should be based on the optimization of industrial structure,the improvement of water resources utilization efficiency and the transforma⁃tion of ecological value,so as to create a characteristic economic development model that saves water and protects the environment and acts according to the amount of water.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 熵权-TOPSIS法 Hoit-Winter模型 南疆 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]