人口老龄化对宏观政策有效性的影响——基于宏观政策“三策合一”数据库的实证研究  

The Effects of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policy:An Empirical Study Based on the Macro Policy Trinity Database

作　　者：陈小亮[1] 刘沁璇 CHEN Xiaoliang;LIU Qinxuan(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100836,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《财经论丛》2025年第5期41-54,共14页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目(72342033);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073141);中宣部马克思主义理论研究和建设工程重大项目(国家社科基金重大项目)(2024MZD018);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目(2023JZDZ025)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国人口老龄化程度持续加深,对宏观调控带来了新的挑战。因此,有必要研究人口老龄化对宏观政策有效性的影响。本文使用宏观政策“三策合一”数据库中的稳定政策效率指数,基于中国2000年一季度至2022年四季度的宏观数据进行实证研究,验证了人口老龄化对宏观政策有效性的非线性影响。相比“低老龄化”阶段,“高老龄化”阶段下老龄化对宏观政策的负向影响会大幅提高,导致宏观政策有效性加速下降。之所以人口老龄化会对宏观政策有效性产生非线性影响,是因为人口老龄化对企业部门投资信心的影响具有非线性特征,在“高老龄化”阶段,企业部门投资信心的大幅度下降,使得宏观政策有效性进一步下降。基于研究发现,本文建议政府除了通过提高生育率等举措缓解老龄化进程,还要做好两方面工作:一是加强预期管理,提振企业投资信心;二是加强对增长政策和结构政策的使用,通过优化经济结构和提升经济增长动力来提高政策传导效率。As China enters the era of negative population growth,the pace of aging will continue to accelerate,posing new challenges to the regulation of macroeconomic policy.Compared with the stage of mild aging,it is essential to reconceptualize and understand the impact of rapid aging on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy.By using the stabilization policy effec-tiveness index from the Macro Policy Trinity database,this paper conducts an empirical study based on quarterly data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022.The results indicate that the impact of aging on the effectiveness of macro-economic policy exhibits non-linear effects.Compared with the state of low aging population,the state of high aging population has an additional negative impact on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy,leading to an accelerated decline in the effec-tiveness of macroeconomic policy.With regard to the mechanism,the non-linear impact of aging on macroeconomic policy ef-fectiveness is due to the non-linear effect of aging on investment confidence in the enterprise sector,and the further decline in investment confidence makes macroeconomic policy effectiveness decline further.In the next step,in addition to measures such as raising the fertility rate to mitigate the impact of aging on macroeconomic policy effectiveness,it is crucial to strengthen ex-pectation management to better boost confidence and improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.Whats more,it is also crucial to strengthen the use of economic growth policy and structural policy to increase their transmission effectiveness.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 宏观政策有效性 非线性效应 宏观政策“三策合一”数据库 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]