基于MaxEnt模型预测我国怒江山茶的潜在适生区  

Prediction of potential suitable area of Camellia saluenensis in China based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：徐帆 贺鹭瑶 郑伟 XU Fan;HE Lu-yao;ZHENG Wei(Faculty of Architecture and City Planning,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China;College of Landscape Architecture,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学建筑与城市规划学院,昆明650504 [2]四川农业大学风景园林学院,成都611130

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2025年第2期375-383,共9页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32060691)。

摘　　要：【目的】怒江山茶(Camellia saluenensis Stapf ex Bean)是观赏茶花中叶片最小的物种,株型矮小、紧凑、美观,是极具园林应用潜力的观赏树种。未来温室效应增强导致怒江山茶的适生区域发生变化,因此怒江山茶的潜在适生区研究可为其引种栽培和保护性开发提供科学依据。【方法】基于129条怒江山茶的标本信息,通过生态位模型(MaxEnt模型)和ArcGIS软件,模拟怒江山茶在中国1970—2000年间及未来4个时期(2030s、2050s、2070s、2090s)不同气候条件下的分布情况,探究其适生范围和主导气候因子。【结果】(1)历史基准期,怒江山茶的潜在适生区面积为3.80×10~5 km^(2),占中国陆地面积的3.94%,主要分布于云南和四川;MaxEnt型ROC曲线的AUC值为0.99,表明模型精度较高,预测结果较好。(2)19个气候变量中,季节性温度变化(B4)对怒江山茶地理分布状况影响最大。(3)未来时期,怒江山茶的适生区范围有所增加。低适生区变化最为明显,有逐渐向西南和东北方向延伸趋势。【结论】怒江山茶在中国的潜在适生区有所扩大,但主要稳定在滇中及金沙江流域,因此可将滇中、金沙江流域的怒江山茶筛选为核心种质,以期推进怒江山茶的引种栽培及园林应用。【Objective】 Camellia saluenensis Stapf ex Bean,a species with the smallest blade among ornamental camellias,is of great prospect for the landscape application due to its small,compact and beautiful plant shape.In the future,the enhanced greenhouse effect will lead to the change of the suitable area of C.saluenensis,so the researches on potential suitable areas of C.saluenensis may provide scientific basis for its introduction,cultivation and conservation.【Method】The distribution of C.saluenensis under different climate conditions in China(1970-2000,2030s,2050s,2070s and 2090s) was simulated by using the ecological niche model(MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software based on 129 specimen information of C.saluenensis.The stably suitable range of C.saluenensis and its dominant climate factors were also explored.【Result】(i) At present,the potential suitable area of C.saluenensis was 3.80×10~5 km~2,accounting for 3.94% of China's land area,mainly distributed in Yunnan and Sichuan.The AUC value of the ROC curve of the contemporary model was 0.99,indicating the high model accuracy and good prediction results.(ii) Among the 19 climate variables,seasonal temperature changes(B4) had the greatest influence on the geographical distribution of C.saluenensis.(iii) In the future,the suitable area of C.saluenensis would be increased.The lowly suitable area would be changed obviously,extending as a trend to the southwest and northeast.【Conclusion】The potential suitable areas of C.saluenensis will be increased and stably concentrated in central Yunnan and Jinshajiang basin.Therefore,the C.saluenensis in central Yunnan and Jinshajiang basin can be screened as the core germplasm,so as to promote the introduction and landscape cultivation of C.saluenensis.

关 键 词：怒江红山茶 适宜区 生态位模型 气候条件 环境变量 

分 类 号：S685.14[农业科学—观赏园艺]