贝叶斯模型平均法在海底水温模拟中的应用  

Application of Bayesian Model Averaging in the Simulation of Seafloor Water Temperatures in the Gulf of Maine

作　　者：高明超 杨帅 张宁 张永明 GAO Mingchao;YANG Shuai;ZHANG Ning;ZHANG Yongming(Jinan Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying Institute,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]济南市勘察测绘研究院,济南250101

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第8期60-63,共4页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：近几十年来沿海海洋环流模型已得到显著改善,但仍然难以获得足够的数据来约束和验证模拟。北美海洋与大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)与当地渔船合作提供了一个低成本的数据观测系统,该系统已在美国东北部海洋大陆架(the US northeast continental shelf)的广泛范围内产生大量的每小时底部温度数据集。为了给予沿海海洋环流模型更好地验证模拟以及帮助渔民更清楚地了解捕鱼状况,结合现有的三种海洋模型,以每小时实时海洋底部温度数据作为参照,将各个海洋模型的数据同多种海洋模型经过贝叶斯模型平均法处理之后的数据进行可视化产品评估分析,以此发现贝叶斯组合模型表现更佳。Coastal ocean circulation models have improved dramatically in recent decades,but it is still difficult to obtain sufficient data to constrain and validate simulations.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,hereinafter referred to as NOAA,in cooperation with local fishing vessels,provides a low-cost data observing system that has produced a large number of hourly bottom temperature datasets over a wide area of the US Northeast Continental Shelf over a wide area,generating a large number of hourly bottom temperature datasets.In order to provide a better validation of the coastal ocean circulation model and to help fishermen have a better understanding of the fishing conditions,three existing ocean models were combined and the hourly real-time bottom temperature data was used as a reference to visualize the data from each ocean model and the data from multiple ocean models after Bayesian model averaging,which revealed that the performance of the Bayesian combined model was better.The Bayesian combination model is found to perform better.

关 键 词：海洋模型 贝叶斯模型平均法 海洋底部温度数据 

分 类 号：P229.5[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]