不同发展阶段下临空经济区产业结构调整策略——基于国家级临空经济区PVAR模型和耦合协调度模型的分析  

Industrial Structure Adjustment Strategy of Airport Economic Zone under Different Development Stages:Analysis Based on PVAR Model and Coupling Coordination Degree Model of National Airport Economic Zone

作　　者：倩倩 叶文婧 徐杭 白鸿宇 WANG Qianqian;YE Wenjing;XU Hang;BAI Hongyu(Zhejiang Scientific Research Institute of Transport Transportation Development Research Center,Hangzhou,310023,China;School of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省交通运输科学研究院交通发展研究中心,杭州310023 [2]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第8期91-101,共11页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：浙江省软科学研究计划项目(2024C35019)。

摘　　要：不同发展阶段下临空经济区的产业发展需求存在异质性,为实现临空经济发展效益最大化,亟须探索差异化的产业调整策略。面向国家级临空经济区,基于生长曲线模型划分其发展阶段,构建PVAR模型和耦合协调度模型分别探究产业结构调整和临空经济发展间的互动关系以及协调程度。结果表明:16个国家级临空经济区中有6个处于起步期,7个处于发展期,3个处于成熟期;在起步期,产业合理化和高级化均对临空经济起促进效果且高级化作用显著;在发展期,产业合理化、高级化分别起促进和抑制作用;在成熟期,两者均能稳定推动发展;产业结构调整与临空经济发展的耦合协调度普遍随着临空经济的发展不断增加,但也存在着宁波等发展指数较高但协调度较低的临空经济示范区。鉴于此,临空经济区在起步期、发展期应当注重产业结构升级且有选择地进行产业结构合理化,在成熟期可两种调整措施并举。Airport economic demonstration zones are becoming the growth poles that drive regional high-quality development.Airport economic zones at different stages of development have heterogeneous needs for industrial structure adjustment.Exploring differentiated and coordinated adjustment strategies is of great significance for promoting airport economic development.Based on the life cycle theory,the development stages of national airport economic zones were divided,and the PVAR model and the coupling coordination degree model were constructed to explore the interaction and coordination degree between industrial structure adjustment and airport economic development.The results show that 8 of the national airport economic zones are in the initial stage,9 are in the development stage,and 1 is in the mature stage.In the initial stage and mature stage,the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure promote and hinder the high-quality development of airport economy respectively,but such promoting and hindering effects will gradually weaken in the long run,and the hindering effect may turn to promoting effect in the long run.For the mature airport economic zone,the upgrading of industrial structure will slowly promote the development in the long run.The rationalization of industrial structure will play a great role in promoting.The coupling coordination degree between industrial structure and airport economic development is generally increasing with the development of airport economy,and Nanning,Guiyang and Qingdao airport economic zones are on the verge of imbalance.In view of this,the airport economic zone should pay attention to the rationalization of industrial structure and selectively upgrade the industrial structure in the initial period and the development period,and can focus on the upgrading of industrial structure in the mature period.

关 键 词：临空经济 生命周期理论 PVAR模型 耦合协调度模型 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]