黄河上游典型水源涵养流域径流演变及归因解析研究  

Runoff Evolution and Attribution Quantification for a Typical Water Conservation Catchment in the Upper Yellow River Basin

作　　者：王国庆 郑雨凝[1,3,5] 刘希胜 孙高霞 李晨希[7] 刘翠善 WANG Guoqing;ZHENG Yuning;LIU Xisheng;SUN Gaoxia;LI Chenxi;LIU Cuishan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Forecasting Center for Hydrology and Water Resources of the Qinghai Province,Xining 810001,China;Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology,Nanjing 210012,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [3]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [4]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029 [5]河海大学水安全与水科学协同创新中心,江苏南京210098 [6]青海省水文水资源测报中心,青海西宁810001 [7]南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏南京210012

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期32-39,共8页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2243228,52121006)。

摘　　要：黄河流域水资源匮乏,黄河水源涵养区径流量受环境变化影响显著,科学厘清径流演变特征,定量解析径流变化原因,对黄河上游水源涵养和生态保护具有重要意义。以黄河上游大通河流域为研究对象,诊断其1961—2020年实测径流量的演变特征,并采用VIC模型定量分析径流变化原因。结果表明:①1961—2020年大通河享堂站实测径流量呈显著减少趋势,且在1990年发生突变;②1991—2020年实测年径流量较基准期1961—1990年的减少12%,其中4—10月份径流量减少27.7 mm,其他月份的增加4.4 mm;③VIC模型对大通河流域基准期天然径流量过程模拟效果较好,NSE效率系数为0.74,相对误差为0.46%;④气候变化使得1991—2020年径流量较基准期的增加21.8 mm,而人类活动使得径流量减少45.0 mm,其中水利工程建设及水量外调是享堂站径流量减少的重要原因。The Yellow River Basin is shortage in water resources.The hydrological regime in the water conservation areas of the Yellow River Basin has been highly influenced by environment change.It is of significance to quantify attribution of runoff change for water conservation and ecological protection.Taking the Datong River in the upper Yellow River Basin as a case,this study investigated characteristics of runoff evolution during 1961—2020,and quantified impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change by using VIC model.The results showed that:①The measured annual runoff at Xiangtang station showed a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2020,with an abrupt change occurring in 1990.②The recorded annual runoff in 1991—2020 decreased by 12%relative to baseline of 1961—1990,among which,runoff decreased by 27.7 mm in the period from April to October and increased by 4.4 mm in other months;③The VIC model performs well in monthly natural discharge simulation for the baseline period of 1961—1990 with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.74 and relative error of 0.46%;④During the period of 1991—2020,climate change increased runoff by 21.8 mm,while human activities decreased runoff by 45.0 mm.Construction and operation of water conservancy projects in the Datong River is the dominated reason of runoff reduction at the Xiangtang hydrometric station.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 大通河流域 径流量 VIC模型 归因识别 

分 类 号：TV121.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]