基于SSPs情景的滦河流域水源涵养量研究  

Water Conservation in the Luanhe River Basin under SSPs Scenarios

作　　者：门宝辉[1] 李国娇 刘灿均 MEN Baohui;LI Guojiao;LIU Canjun(College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Power China Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited,Kunming 650051,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [2]中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,云南昆明650051

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期74-83,共10页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406);全球环境基金(GEF)水资源与水环境综合管理主流化项目(1-2,2-6)。

摘　　要：滦河流域是京津冀地区重要的水源涵养区,研究变化环境下的水源涵养量对保障流域水安全具有重要意义。基于CMIP6中SSPs情景的人口和GDP数据,构建了耦合SD和FLUS模型预测2030年土地利用情况的SWAT模型,模拟预测并分析了3种SSP情景下的滦河流域年水源涵养量及其时空分布特征。结果表明:从时间维度来看,流域水源涵养量呈现出先减少后增加的趋势;从空间维度来看,流域东南的水源涵养量多于西北部的;3种SSP情景下的水源涵养量均比现状年多,其中SSP3的水源涵养量最多,为11.24亿m^(3);从影响因素来看,水源涵养量与降水量呈显著正相关,与蒸散发量呈负相关;流域水源涵养量主要来自草地、林地和耕地。The Luanhe River Basin serves as a critical water conservation zone for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,making it essential to assess its hydrological resilience under climate change.This study quantifies water conservation dynamics across three SSP scenarios using an integrated modeling framework.Population and GDP projections from CMIP6 were incorporated into a coupled System Dynamics(SD)-FLUS model to predict 2030 land use patterns,which were then utilized in a calibrated SWAT model to simulate spatial-temporal variations in water conservation.Key findings include:①Temporally,water conservation exhibited a U-shaped trend(decline followed by recovery)during 2000-2030,with the lowest value in 2020(9.72 billion m3)and the highest under SSP3 in 2030(11.24 billion m3).②Spatially,southeastern sub-basins showed higher conservation capacity than northwestern areas due to precipitation gradients.③Multi-variate analysis revealed strong positive correlation with precipitation and negative correlation with evapotranspiration.④The main water conservation of the basin comes from grassland,forest land and cultivated land.

关 键 词：水源涵养 土地利用预测 SWAT模型 滦河流域 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]