气候变化、气候适应性措施与农业全要素生产率——基于投入要素视角  

Climate Change,Climate Adaptation Measures and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity——From the Perspective of Input Factors

作　　者：李文启[1] 牛健敏 LI Wenqi;NIU Jianmin

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学经济贸易学院,郑州450000

出　　处：《世界农业》2025年第5期29-41,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队建设计划资助(2025-CXTD-08);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新人才支持计划资助(2024-CXRC-10);河南省高等教育教学改革研究与实践项目(研究生教育类)(2023SJGLX039Y)。

摘　　要：为探索气候变化及气候适应性措施对农业生产效率的影响,本文基于2004—2022年地级市气象与农业生产数据,从资本、劳动力和环境要素角度,采用双向固定效应模型实证分析了气候变化、气候适应性措施对农业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:气温偏差增大与降水偏差增加显著降低了农业全要素生产率。从农业全要素生产率的分解看,技术效率改进与规模效率的损失较大。机制分析表明,气温偏差增大导致干旱程度增加、劳动力效率损失,但并未导致农业资本损失;降水偏差增加导致洪涝灾害、农业资本损失,但并未导致劳动力效率损失。调节效应分析发现,高标准农田建设、农业社会化服务以及农业保险均减弱了气温偏差增大对农业全要素生产率的不利影响,其中农业保险的影响存在跨期效应;农业保险减弱了降水偏差增加对农业全要素生产率的不利影响。In order to explore the impact of climate change and climate adaptation measures on agricultural production efficiency,based on the meteorological and agricultural production data of prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2022,this paper analyzes the impact of climate change and climate adaptation measures on agricultural total factor productivity from the perspective of capital,labor and environmental factors by using two-way fixed effect model.The results show that the increase of temperature deviation and precipitation deviation significantly reduce agricultural TFP.From the decomposition of agricultural TFP,technical efficiency improvement and loss of scale efficiency contribute more.The mechanism analysis shows that the increase of temperature deviation leads to the increase of drought and the loss of labor efficiency,but does not lead to the loss of agricultural capital.The increase of rainfall deviation leads to flood disaster and loss of agricultural capital,but does not lead to loss of labor efficiency.The adjustment effect analysis found that high-standard farmland construction,agricultural socialization service and agricultural insurance all weakened the adverse impact of increasing temperature deviation on agricultural total factor productivity,and the effect of agricultural insurance had an intertemporal effect.Agricultural insurance attenuated the adverse effects of increased rainfall deviation on agricultural total factor productivity.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候适应性措施 农业全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]