低碳城市试点政策对城市绿色全要素生产率的影响及效应  

Impacts and effects of low-carbon city pilot policies on urban green total factor productivity

作　　者：杨灵[1] 王梦月 蔡冬冬[1] 尹博[2] YANG Ling;WANG Mengyue;CAI Dongdong;YIN Bo(School of Economics,Shenyang University of Technology,Shenyang,Liaoning 110870,China;Institute of Urban Development,Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences,Shenyang,Liaoning 110031,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110870 [2]辽宁社会科学院城市发展研究所,辽宁沈阳110031

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期185-198,共14页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CJY024);辽宁省软科学研究计划项目(2021JH4/10100032)。

摘　　要：低碳城市试点政策是国家低碳战略的重要内容,对推动产业结构升级、实现经济高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2007—2019年我国278个地级及以上城市面板数据,以2010年开始推行的3批次低碳城市试点政策为准自然实验,采用交错双重差分(DID)、事件研究、合成DID以及广义合成估计等方法,评估低碳城市试点政策对中国城市绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)的影响及其作用机制,选取技术创新、产业结构高级化和合理化、产业集聚等作为中间作用机制变量,同时控制要素配置、金融发展、金融效率、信息化、市场化和环境规制等因素。研究发现,低碳城市试点政策能够提升城市GTFP水平,但存在显著的区域异质性。进一步的作用机制分析发现,产业结构高级化在试点政策作用过程中发挥中介作用与效应,技术创新、产业集聚起到调节促进作用,而产业结构合理化起到调节抑制作用。动态效应分析显示,政策实施后的平均处理效应为正且具有统计显著性,表明政策具有一定的滞后性,随着时间推移处理效应逐步提高。旨为评价低碳试点政策实施效果、持续推进国家低碳战略提供实证支撑,为推动经济高质量发展、尽早实现“双碳”目标提供有益借鉴和参考。The low-carbon city pilot(LCCP)policies are the important content of the national low-carbon strategy,which is of great significance in upgrading industrial structure and realizing high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of 278 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2007 to 2019,and taking the three batches of LCCP projects implemented since 2010 as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper adopts the methods of staggered difference-in-differences(DID),event study,synthetic DID,and generalized synthetic estimation to assess the impacts of LCCP policies on green total factor productivity(GTFP)of Chinese cities and its underlying mechanisms.Specifically,technological innovation,industrial structure upgrading and rationalization,and industrial agglomeration are selected as the intermediate mechanism variables,while factors such as factor allocation,financial development,financial efficiency,informatization,marketization,and environmental regulation are controlled.The results reveal that the LCCP policies can enhance the level of urban GTFP,but this impact is significantly heterogeneous across regions.Further analysis finds that industrial structure upgrading acts as a mediator in the LCCP policies;technological innovation and industrial agglomeration serve as moderators with promoting effects;and industrial structure rationalization functions as a moderator with inhibiting effects.Dynamic effect analysis shows that the average treatment effect after the implementation of LCCP policies is positive and statistically significant,indicating that the LCCP policies exhibit a certain lag,and the treatment effect gradually increases over time.This paper aims to provide empirical support for evaluating the implementation effect of LCCP policies and continuously advancing the national low-carbon strategy while providing useful references for promoting high-quality economic development and realizing the“dual-carbon”goals as soon as possible.

关 键 词：低碳城市试点 绿色全要素生产率 交错DID 技术创新 产业结构 产业集聚 

分 类 号：F062.5[经济管理—政治经济学]