城投公司债务类型结构对债务风险的影响研究  

The Influence of Debt Type Structure on Risk Exposure in Local Government Financing Vehicles

作　　者：胡晓 王正杰 冯乾彬 Hu Xiao;Wang Zhengjie;Feng Qianbin(School of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu;China MCC5 Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu;School of Economics,Southwest Minzu University,Chengdu)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院 [2]中国五冶集团有限公司 [3]西南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2025年第2期108-120,共13页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“创新的传承与进化:中小科技企业初始创新行为的持续与影响机制研究”(项目编号:72002175)。

摘　　要：城投公司债务作为地方政府隐性债务的重要组成部分,近年来其债务风险突出。厘清城投公司债务结构对其债务风险的影响,对防范和化解地方政府隐性债务风险具有重要意义。文章通过构建理论模型,基于收集整理的2018~2022年1825家城投公司及其公开发行的22630只城投债数据进行实证研究发现,城投公司债务类型结构中非信贷非标准化债务占比越高,代表债务风险的城投债发行利差越大。进一步的异质性分析指出,城投公司行政级别越低、总资产越少、所在地区债务率越高,城投公司非信贷非标准化债务占比对债务风险的影响越强。文章部分揭示了城投公司债务的风险特征,能够弥补当前对城投公司债务类型结构研究的缺失,对政府因地制宜甄别和化解隐性债务风险具有实践启示。As a pivotal constituent of local governments'implicit liabilities,the debt risk borne by Local Government Financing Vehicles(LGFVs)has become increasingly salient in recent years.Understanding how the internal composition of LGFV debt influences its risk profile bears profound implications for mitigating and defusing systemic fiscal vulnerabilities at the subnational level.This study constructs a theoretical framework and undertakes a robust empirical analysis based on a comprehensive dataset encompassing 1,825 LGFVs and 22,630 urban investment bonds publicly issued between 2018 and 2022.The findings reveal a salient pattern:the greater the proportion of non-credit,non-standard debt within an LGFV's debt structure,the wider the bond issuance spread-an indicator of heightened financial risk.Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced among LGFVs characterized by lower administrative ranks,smaller asset bases,and operation within regions burdened by higher debt ratios.These insights shed new light on the risk attributes inherent in LGFV debt structures,bridging a significant gap in current literature.The study offers valuable policy implications,guiding local governments toward more targeted identification and resolution of latent debt risks through context-sensitive governance.

关 键 词：城投公司 债务类型结构 非标准化债务 债券发行利差 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]