地方政府社会保障服务的公众满意度变迁趋势及结构差异研究——基于中国社会状况综合调查的实证分析  

Tracing the Evolution and Structural Divergences in Public Satisfaction with Local Government Social Security Services:An Empirical Inquiry Based on CONSENSUS Data

作　　者：朱火云 马仕龙 丁煜[3] Zhu Huoyun;Ma Shilong;Ding Yu(School of Public Administration and Emergency Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou;School of Public Affairs,Xiamen University,Xiamen)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院 [2]暨南大学共同富裕与国家治理研究院 [3]厦门大学公共事务学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2025年第2期121-134,共14页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：福建省社会科学基地重大项目“福建省农村互助养老服务体系构建研究”(项目编号:FJ2022JDZ014);暨南大学“宁静致远”项目“基于共同生产的老年友好型社区高质量发展研究”(项目编号:23JNQMX07)。

摘　　要：地方政府社会保障服务的公众满意度是衡量社会保障高质量发展的软指标。文章基于“中国社会状况综合调查”(CSS)2006~2021年八期的重复截面数据,构建了“分层年龄—时期—队列—方差函数”回归模型(HAPC—VFR),深入刻画了21世纪以来公众对地方政府社会保障服务满意度评价的变迁和变异趋势。研究发现,年龄效应中,满意度呈现先下降后上升的“U”型趋势,满意度分歧则随年龄增长不断扩大;时期效应中,满意度评价从“低满意—高分歧”向“高满意—低分歧”转变;队列效应中,满意度随队列更新呈现“N”型变动趋势,满意度分歧则呈现倒“U”型趋势。其中,年龄效应和队列效应均具有显著的城乡异质性。文章据此建议,一是完善基于全生命周期理念和以家庭为单位的社会保障体系;二是增强社会保障制度改革的连贯性,找准社会保障制度的稳定性与灵活性之间的平衡点;三是加强社会保障软指标评估体系建设。Public satisfaction with social security services administered by local governments functions as a vital“soft metric”for gauging the qualitative advancement of welfare systems.Drawing upon eight waves of repeated cross-sectional data from the Chinese Social Survey(CSS)spanning 2006 to 2021,this paper employs a Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Variance Function Regression model(HAPC-VFR)to intricately portray the shifting contours and internal variances in public sentiment over the course of the 21st century.The findings are multilayered.Age effects reveal a U-shaped curve in satisfaction-initial decline followed by resurgence-accompanied by an expanding divergence in opinion as age progresses.Period effects underscore a transformation from“low satisfaction-high divergence”to“high satisfaction-low divergence.”Cohort effects demonstrate an undulating N-shaped trend in satisfaction,with divergence tracing an inverted U.Notably,both age and cohort effects exhibit pronounced urban-rural heterogeneity.In response,this research proposes three policy directions:first,the development of a comprehensive,family-based social security framework grounded in life-cycle theory;second,enhancing the coherence of welfare reforms to strike a delicate balance between institutional stability and adaptive flexibility;third,strengthening the evaluation system of soft indicators for social security to improve governance responsiveness.

关 键 词：地方政府 社会保障 公众满意度 变迁趋势 结构差异 

分 类 号：D632.1[政治法律—政治学]