可行能力影响农户返贫风险的作用机制分析——基于湖北省1091个农村样本的实证分析  

Research on the Mechanism Influencing of the Risk of Poverty-returning in Rural Household from the Perspective of Capability:An Empirical Analysis Based on 1091 Rural Samples in Hubei Province

作　　者：李东平 田北海[2] LI Dong-ping;TIAN Bei-hai(Hubei Academy of Social Sciences;Huazhong Agricultural University)

机构地区：[1]湖北省社会科学院全面深化改革研究中心 [2]华中农业大学农村社会建设与管理研究中心

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期46-57,共12页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“面向过渡期后的农村低收入人口常态化帮扶机制研究”(23BSH009)。

摘　　要：返贫风险研究关注农户在未来可能的返贫问题,这对于巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、建立农村常态化防止返贫致贫机制具有重要意义。基于2021年湖北省7个地、市(州)1091份农户问卷调查数据,系统分析可行能力对农户返贫风险的影响和作用机制。研究发现,可行能力对农户返贫风险具有显著负向影响。农户的可行能力水平越高,其返贫风险越低。其中,相较于人力资本和信息获得,经济条件和社会保障对农户返贫风险的抑制作用更为突出;社会机会没有显著降低农户的返贫风险,其作用机制表现为:可行能力可通过提升家庭抗逆力和激发内生动力来降低农户的返贫风险。可行能力对农户返贫风险的影响具有复杂性和多样性,其作用程度和方式因农户返贫风险类型差异而显著不同。Poverty-returning risk studies focus on the likelihood of rural households returning to poverty in the future, and are important for consolidating the achievements made in poverty alleviation and assessing the longevity of poverty alleviation mechanisms. The study systematically analyses the impact of capability and mechanisms on the risk of poverty-returning of farm households based on 1091 questionnaire surveys of farm households in seven cities in Hubei Province in 2021. The findings show that capability has a significant negative impact on the risk of poverty-returning for rural households. The higher the level of capability of rural households, the lower their probability of returning to poverty. In particular, economic conditions and social security had more stronger inhibiting effect on the risk of poverty-returning than human capital and accessibility to information;Social opportunities did not significantly reduce the risk of poverty-returning. In terms of the mechanism of the inhibiting effect, capability reduced the risk of poverty-returning through the channels of increasing the resilience of rural households and enhancing the endogenous motivation of rural households. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of capability on the risk of rural households returning to poverty is complex and varied, and the extent and manner of its effect varies considerably depending on the type of risk of rural households returning to poverty.

关 键 词：返贫风险 可行能力 家庭抗逆力 家庭内生动力 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]