考虑动态交通演化过程的应急疏散优化研究  

Research on Emergency Evacuation Optimization Considering Dynamic Traffic Evolution

作　　者：王飒一 张小宁[1] WANG Sayi;ZHANG Xiaoning(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《工程管理科技前沿》2025年第2期9-16,共8页Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(72021002)。

摘　　要：随着全球自然灾害的频繁发生,城市应急疏散策略的研究显得尤为重要。本文针对城市灾前有预警的应急疏散问题,研究考虑动态交通演化过程的应急疏散优化策略。首先,建立一个双层规划模型:下层规划为基于动态用户最优路径选择策略的多分类交通流网络模型,上层规划则通过优化疏散需求点一应急避难点匹配策略来最小化总疏散完成时间;其次,基于时空网格划分,采用一阶有限体格式求解多分类交通流网络模型,并设计启发式算法求解上层规划;再次,通过数值算例验证模型和算法的有效性。With the frequent occurrence of natural disasters worldwide,the study of urban emergency evacuation strategies has become particularly important.This paper focuses on the emergency evacuation problem with pre-disaster warnings in cities,studying the optimization strategy for emergency evacuation considering dynamic traffic evolution.First,a bi-level programming model is established:the lower-level subprogram is a multi-class traffic flow network model based on the dynamic user-optimal route choice strategy,and the upper-level subprogram optimizes the evacuation demand point-emergency shelter matching strategy to minimize the total evacuation completion time.Second,based on the spatiotemporal grid division,a first-order finite volume method is used to solve the multi-class traffic flow network model,and a heuristic algorithm is designed to solve the upper-level subprogram.Third,the effectiveness of the model and algorithm is verified through numerical examples.The research results indicate that by adjusting the evacuation demand point-emergency shelter matching strategy,the overall evacuation completion time can be reduced.During the emergency evacuation process,vehicles can dynamically choose the fastest route to reach their destinations according to the actual traffic status,thus reducing travel time.Additionally,a decrease in road capacity will rapidly increase the overall evacuation completion time.This research reveals the evacuation demand point-emergency shelter matching mechanism considering dynamic traffic evolution process,offering a scientific basis for the government to formulate and improve emergency evacuation strategies.The management implications are as follows.First,evacuees should be informed in advance about the emergency shelter point they are supposed to go to,and the real-time traffic status should be provided promptly to guide them to evacuate in an orderly manner.Second,under the optimal strategy,some residents are required to go to a more distant emergency shelter.The government needs to e

关 键 词：应急疏散 动态交通演化 双层规划 网络交通流模型 应急避难点匹配 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]