基于系统动力学的危险化学品道路运输安全管理仿真  

Simulation on hazardous chemicals road transport safety management based on system dynamics

作　　者：王旭磊[1] 孙春薇[2] WANG Xulei;SUN Chunwei(School of Economics and Management(School of Cooperatives),Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao,Shandong 266109,China;School of Science and Information Science,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao,Shandong 266109,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院(合作社学院),山东青岛266109 [2]青岛农业大学理学与信息科学学院,山东青岛266019

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2025年第4期189-198,共10页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(16YJC630127);青岛农业大学高层次人才科研基金项目(1112337)。

摘　　要：【目标】明确不同影响因素对危险化学品道路运输安全影响作用机理,提升危险化学品道路运输安全水平。【方法】利用系统动力学理论和方法,构建危险化学品道路运输安全系统动力学模型,基于历史事故数据及专家知识对危险化学品道路运输安全影响因素间的作用机理进行仿真分析。【结果】危险化学品道路运输安全系统是一个多影响因素互相作用的复杂系统,影响因素间存在复杂相互作用关系;危险化学品道路运输安全水平在未来一段时间内呈现趋好态势;危险化学品道路运输年度增量及政府监管部门安全监管水平对运输安全有直接的影响,随着年度危化品道路运输量增长率的增加,安全水平会明显下降;随着监管部门监管水平的加强,运输安全水平也会得到提高。影响因素对于危险化学品道路运输安全总水平的影响程度依次为人为因素、运输企业安全管理、运输车辆和设备设施及危险化学品自身。【结论】政府监管部门需对快速增长的危险化学品道路运输量保持高度警惕,持续、有效的长期监管才能保持危险化学品道路运输安全处于较高水平。政府监管部门和运输企业在制订监管措施时,可以依据人为因素、运输企业安全管理、运输车辆和设备设施及危险化学品自身安全的次序确定重点监管领域。[Objective]To clarify the mechanism of different influencing factors on hazardous chemical road transport safety,and to improve the road transport safety level of hazardous chemicals.[Method]The system dynamics model of hazardous chemical road transport safety was constructed by using the theory and method of system dynamics.The simulation analysis was conducted on interaction mechanism among safety factors based on the historical accident data and expert knowledge.[Result]Hazardous chemical road transport safety system is complex with multiple factors interacting with each other.The hazardous chemical road transport safety will show an upward trend in the next period of time.The annual increment of hazardous chemical road transport and the safety supervision of government regulatory authorities have direct impact on hazardous chemical road transport safety.As the annual growth rate of hazardous chemical road transport increasing,the safety level will significantly decrease.With the strengthening of regulatory authorities,the transport safety level will also be improved.The order of influencing factors,affecting hazardous chemical road transport overall safety level,is human factors,transport enterprise safety management,transport vehicles and equipment facilities,and hazardous chemicals themselves.[Conclusion]The government regulatory department needs to be highly vigilant to the rapid growth of hazardous chemical road transport volume.Only continuous and effective long-term supervision can keep hazardous chemical road transport safety at a high level.When formulating regulatory measures,the government regulatory departments and transport enterprises should determine key regulatory areas according to the order of human factors,safety management of transport enterprises,transport vehicles,equipment and facilities,and the safety of hazardous chemicals themselves.

关 键 词：物流工程 仿真分析 系统动力学 危险化学品 安全管理 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]