美国推动对华“去风险”:路径、逻辑与困境  

The United States’Push to“De-risking”Towards China:Path,Logic and Dilemma

作　　者：关照宇 欧歌 GUAN Zhaoyu;OU Ge

机构地区：[1]中央团校,北京100000 [2]北京外国语大学,北京100000

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2025年第3期13-25,共13页International Business Research

基　　金：国家留学基金委“2024年国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目”(项目编号:202406530275)。

摘　　要：美国对华“脱钩”政策是特朗普第一任期施行的对华经贸方针,事实证明,“脱钩”不仅没有达到政策预期,反而给美国经济与社会带来了一系列负面影响。拜登政府上台以后,美国对华经贸政策与叙事从“脱钩”调整为“去风险”。在“去风险”的框架下,拜登政府提出了“美国制造”“友岸外包”“近岸外包”“构建弹性供应链”等一系列新的概念,旨在进一步收紧对华出口管制、限制中美双向投资、组建产业联盟、推行“小院高墙”式的对华经贸遏压政策。以上政策既反映了美国对华政策的阶段性特点,也是拜登政府重振中产阶级、巩固选民基础的政治策略。与对华“脱钩”政策一样,由于盟友间分歧难弥、与产业发展逻辑相背、国内相关利益集团掣肘等因素的影响,美国对华“去风险”政策同样陷入困境。2025年特朗普再度执政后,为了与拜登政府保持距离,美国很可能放弃“去风险”叙事,但是背后的“经贸遏华”战略没有改变,“去风险”的逻辑依然成立。中国要坚持底线思维和极限思维,着力防范和化解“去风险”带来的各种挑战。The“decoupling”of trade and economy from China promoted by the Trump administration has not worked well,and it has been adjusted to“de-risking”after Biden taking office.To this end,the Biden administration advocates“made in America”,“near-shoring”and“friend-shoring”to build a flexible supply chain.It has tightened export controls on China,restricted two-way investment,formed industrial alliances,and implemented a“small-yard,high-fence”policy to stifle the development of China’s science and technology.“De-risking”is an economic tradeoff after the failure of“decoupling”from China,reflects the phased characteristics of the US policy towards China,and it is also a political strategy for Biden to revive the middle class and consolidate the voter base.However,the implementation of the United States’“de-risking”policy towards China faces restrictions such as difficulties in eliminating differences between Allies,going against to the logic of industrial development,and the constraints of relevant domestic interest groups.After Trump backing to the White House,the logic of“de-risking”to China is still valid.China should adhere to the bottom-line thinking and limit thinking,and strives to prevent and resolve various risks and challenges brought about by“de-risking”.

关 键 词：“去风险” 供应链安全 拜登政府 中美关系 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]