欧美征收碳关税政策对中国的影响与应对策略  

Impact and Countermeasures of Carbon Tariffs Imposed by Europe and America on China

作　　者：张国平 林梨奎 蔡立峰 ZHANG Guoping;LIN Likui;CAI Lifeng

机构地区：[1]深圳市社会科学院科研学会处,广东深圳518028 [2]广东金融学院金融与投资学院,广东广州510521

出　　处：《深圳社会科学》2025年第3期85-96,共12页Social Sciences in Shenzhen

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“老龄化背景下收入分配调整助力我国迈进高收入阶段的机制研究”(GD24CYJ55)。

摘　　要：欧美国家以“碳边境调节机制”为代表的碳关税政策加速落地,对中国开放型经济发展构成多维挑战。本文系统梳理欧美碳关税政策演变,揭示其以“环保”之名行贸易保护之实,通过设置“碳壁垒”、组建排他性“碳关税联盟”、抬高出口成本等手段抑制中国经贸发展,干扰“一带一路”建设。研究表明:短期看,中国钢铁、铝等高碳行业对欧出口成本显著增加,预期2026年钢铁、铝出口量降幅分别达18%~25%和15%~20%;长期若扩大征税范围,纺织等产业链上下游均将承压。此外,碳关税削弱中国企业国际竞争力,挤压中国全球气候治理话语权,并对“双循环”格局下国内产业转型与能源安全构成挑战。针对上述挑战,中国需多维度应对:一是要强化国际规则博弈,推动《巴黎协定》与WTO框架下的多边协调,适时构建中国碳关税反制机制;二是要加快国内绿色转型,扩大碳交易市场行业覆盖,推进能源结构低碳化,构建全链条绿色供应链;三是要完善数据安全与产业安全管理,建立与国际接轨的碳排放核算体系,加强数据出境合规性评估,防范碳关税衍生的技术封锁与供应链风险。The accelerated implementation of carbon tariff policies by European and American countries,exemplified by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),poses multidimensional challenges to China’s open economy.This paper systematically examines the evolution of carbon tariff policies in Europe and the United States,revealing their dual nature of leveraging environmental protection as a guise for trade protectionism.By establishing“carbon barriers”,forming exclusive“carbon tariff alliances”,and inflating export costs,these policies suppress China’s economic and trade development and disrupt the Belt and Road initiative.The study indicates that in the short term,China’s high-carbon industries such as steel and aluminum face significant export cost increases to Europe,with projected export volume declines of 18%~25%and 15%~20%by 2026,respectively.In the long term,expanding the tariff scope would impose pressure on upstream and downstream sectors of industries like textiles.Furthermore,carbon tariffs undermine the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises,constrain China’s influence in global climate governance,and challenge domestic industrial transformation and energy security under the“dual circulation”framework.To address these challenges,China must adopt a multi-dimensional strategy:First,strengthen international rule-making engagement,advance multilateral coordination under the Paris Agreement and WTO frameworks,and strategically establish a countermeasure mechanism for carbon tariffs.Second,accelerate domestic green transition by broadening industry coverage in carbon trading markets,promoting low-carbon energy restructuring,and establishing full-chain green supply networks.Third,enhance data and industrial security management,align with international carbon accounting standards,strengthen compliance assessments for cross-border data transfers,and mitigate risks of technological blockades and supply chain disruptions induced by carbon tariffs.

关 键 词：欧美国家 碳关税 影响效应 贸易冲击 对策建议 

分 类 号：F745.0[经济管理—国际贸易]