人口流动对生育意愿的影响研究——基于迁移流动和社会流动的视角  

The Influence of Population Mobility on Fertility Intentions:An Analytical Perspective of Migration and Social Mobility

作　　者：杨玲 邓斌 YANG Ling;DENG Bin(School of Sociology&Anthropology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275)

机构地区：[1]中山大学社会学与人类学学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《南方人口》2025年第2期1-14,共14页South China Population

基　　金：中国青少年研究会立项课题“Z世代流动青年社会融入研究”(2023B05)。

摘　　要：人口流动一般分为水平流动和垂直流动,前者指迁移流动,后者则为社会流动。目前学界的理论与实证研究大多仅从单一维度分析流动如何影响人们的生育决策与生育水平,并最终如何调整一个社会的生育率,缺乏对这两种流动共同影响的综合研究。在我国,人口大量流动、由市场与劳动力部门转型导致社会分层进而产生的社会流动,以及生育率快速降低三者并行,且迁移流动和社会流动往往相互伴生。因此,本文基于2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2017)的数据,实证分析迁移流动、社会流动对二孩生育意愿的影响。研究发现:第一,经历迁移流动和向上社会流动的个体二孩生育意愿可能更高;第二,迁移流动和社会流动对生育意愿的影响存在交互作用,且社会流动对流动人口的影响存在不同的机制;第三,异质性分析表明,户口、房产和婚姻状况对个体的生育意愿有重要影响,迁移流动和向上的社会流动对二孩生育意愿的促进作用主要存在于优势阶层和已婚中产阶层,两种流动的交互作用在不同的群体中存在差异。Population mobility is generally divided into horizontal mobility and vertical mobility,with the former referring to migration and the latter to social mobility.Current theoretical and empirical researches mostly analyzes how these types of mobility affect fertility decisions and fertility levels from a single dimension,ultimately adjusting a society's fertility rate.However,there lacks comprehensive studies on the combined effects of these two types of mobility.In China,large-scale population movement,the social mobility driven by social stratification because of market demanding and labor sector transformation and the rapid decline in fertility rates are parallel processing with the concurrency of social mobility and population migration.Based on the data from Chinese General Social Survey 2017,this study analyzes the correlation between migration,social mobility,and the second-child willingness and the findings are as follows:firstly,individuals who experience migration and upward social mobility are more likely to express a willingness to have a second child;secondly,there is an interaction between the effect of both migration and social mobility on the willingness,and the mechanisms differs in the effects of social mobility and migration on the fertility intentions of migrants;thirdly,the heterogeneity analysis indicates that household registration,marital status,and property ownership are significant factors effecting the fertility intentions of second child and the promoting effect of migration and upward social mobility on the willingness to have a second child exists mainly among the advantaged classes and married middle-classes with differences in the interactive effects of both social mobility and migration on the fertility intentions of the second child in different groups.

关 键 词：人口流动 迁移流动 社会流动 生育意愿 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]