我国城镇在职人口就业稳定性的变化趋势分析  

An Analysis of the Changing Trend of Employment Stability of Urban Employed Population in China

作　　者：蒋帆 魏东霞 JIANG Fan;WEI Dong-xia(School of Public Administration,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521;School of International Education,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521)

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院公共管理学院,广东广州510521 [2]广东金融学院国际教育学院,广东广州510521

出　　处：《南方人口》2025年第2期68-80,共13页South China Population

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“户籍分割视角下中国流动人口就业稳定性研究”(20BJY050)。

摘　　要：就业稳定性是决定就业质量的关键因素,对就业稳定性进行科学监测具有重要意义。基于2006-2019年中国社会状况综合调查数据,运用国际通行的Hall方案测算了我国城镇在职人口的4年留职率,分析其就业稳定性在上述时期的变化趋势。结果表明:(1)城镇在职人口的就业稳定性在2008年以后持续下降,城镇就业呈现出显著的短期化趋势。(2)相对于中老年、非高等教育、私有部门以及第二产业在职人口,青年、高等教育、公共部门以及第三产业在职人口就业稳定性的下降趋势更加明显。(3)经济增速放缓、第三产业比重上升以及高等教育人口扩张是导致在职人口就业稳定性下降的重要原因,而数字经济的发展并未对就业稳定性造成显著影响。研究说明将就业稳定性纳入就业监测的范围是必要的,要以促进经济发展为抓手应对城镇就业短期化问题,并为就业稳定性较低的人群提供必要的社会保障。Employment stability is a crucial factor in determining the quality of employment,and scientifically monitoring employment stability is of great significance.Based on the data from Chinese Social Survey 2006-2019,this study calculates the four-year retention rate of the urban employed population using the internationally accepted Hall method,and analyzes the changing trends of their employment stability.The results show that:(1)The employment stability of the urban employed population has been continuously declining since 2008,and urban employment has shown a significant short-term trend;(2)Compared with the employees of middleaged and elderly,non-higher education,working in private sector and secondary industry,the employment stability of youth employees and those working in higher education,public sector,and tertiary industry employees has decreased significantly.(3)The slowdown in economic growth,the increasing proportion of the tertiary industry,and the expansion of the higher education population are the main reasons for the decline in employment stability,while the development of the digital economy has no significant impacts.It is necessary to consider employment stability in the scope of employment monitoring and to address the problem of short-term employment by promoting economic development and providing necessary social security for those with lower employment stability.

关 键 词：就业监测 就业质量 就业稳定性 就业短期化 留职率 

分 类 号：C971[经济管理—劳动经济]