信念测度的拉姆齐方法及其新实用主义辩护  

The Measurement of Belief:Ramsey Method and its Defense from Neopragmatism

作　　者：李章吕 李斌 Zhanglyu Li;Bin Li(School of Philosophy,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Philosophy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Logic and Intelligence,Southwest University)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学哲学院 [2]中国社会科学院哲学研究所 [3]西南大学逻辑与智能研究中心

出　　处：《逻辑学研究》2025年第2期24-40,共17页Studies in Logic

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“贝叶斯决策理论的概率基础与应用研究”(19BZX134);中国社会科学院哲学研究所创新工程项目“人工智能的逻辑与哲学研究”(2023ZXSCXB03)。

摘　　要：为使决策论具备坚实的概率基础,以确保其成为一门科学理论,拉姆齐出了一种基于行动的信念测度方法。然而,一些学者对拉姆齐方法的“可靠性”出了质疑:一为伦理中立命题的存在性问题;二为“无殊”这一偏好关系的行动定义问题;三为实验者的全能性问题。对于第一个问题,埃利奥特引入代数差分结构予以了解决。然而,另外两个问题尚未得到很好的解决。新实用主义哲学主张通过对话交流来证成知识的主体间性,为我们解决余下的两个问题供了启发:一是主张实验者根据言语报告形成关于主体偏好状态的初步判断,并根据行为证据确定这一判断是否可信,以处理“无殊”的定义问题;二是主张实验者通过与主体开展对话交流来达成共识,从而形成关于主体信念状态的客观知识,以处理实验者的全能性问题。In order to establish a solid probabilistic foundation for decision theory and uphold its scientific status,Ramsey introduced a method for measuring belief through actions.However,there are some reservations regarding the“reliability”of Ramsey’s method,focusing on three issues:the existence of ethically neutral propositions,the definitional problem associated with the preference relation“indifference”in terms of actions,and experimenters’power of the Almighty.In response to the first issue,Elliott introduced al gebraic difference structures to provide a solution.However,the other two issues remain unresolved.To tackle these two unresolved issues,we draw inspiration from neoprag matism,which emphasizes the intersubjectivity of knowledge through linguistic commu nication.We propose the following solutions:First,experimenters should form initial judgments about agents’preferences based on agents’verbal reports,and then verify their credibility using behavioral evidence,to address the definitional challenge of“in difference”.Second,experimenters should engage in dialogue with agents to achieve a consensus,thereby forming objective knowledge about agents’belief states to address the issue of experimenters’power of the Almighty.

关 键 词：信念测度 拉姆齐方法 新实用主义 言语报告 行为证据 

分 类 号：B81[哲学宗教—逻辑学]