“十五五”时期我国经济发展阶段性特征及战略趋向  

The Phase Characteristics and Strategic Trend of China's Economic Development During the 15th Five-Year Period

作　　者：易信[1] 彭慧 YI Xin;PENG Hui

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所 [2]上海财经大学统计与数据科学学院

出　　处：《改革》2025年第4期31-43,共13页Reform

摘　　要：受外部环境深刻影响、内部条件深刻变化、新科技革命深刻驱动,“十五五”时期我国潜在经济增速仍能达到年均5.1%左右,2030年人均GDP有望达到1.7万美元,我国将进入发展水平从“中等收入阶段”向“高收入阶段”跨越的冲刺期,增长动力从“传统要素+投资驱动为主”向“新型要素+TFP+消费驱动为主”转变的攻坚期,工业化进程从“传统工业化”向“后工业化”转换的巩固期,城镇化进程从“城镇化加速期”向“城镇化成熟期”转换的过渡期,以及绿色发展从“污染治理为主”向“低碳转型为主”转换的调整期。应顺应、适应、引领经济发展阶段性特征变化,及时优化战略取向并强化战略支撑,合力确保“十五五”时期稳定进入高收入国家行列并在2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平。Shaped by profound shifts in external environments,transformative internal conditions,and accelerated technological revolution,China's potential economic growth rate during the 15th Five-Year period(2026-2030)is projected to maintain an annual average of approximately 5.1%,and by 2030,per capita GDP is expected to reach$17,000.China is poised to enter pivotal developmental phases across multiple dimensions:a critical sprint phase transitioning from medium-income to high-income development status;an arduous shift in growth drivers from traditional factor inputs and investment dominance to innovation-driven models emphasizing new-type production factors,Total Factor Productivity(TFP)enhancement,and consumption-led dynamics;a consolidation period advancing industrialization from conventional paradigms to post-industrial structures;an interim transition in urbanization from accelerated expansion to mature developmental patterns;and a strategic adjustment reorienting green development priorities from pollution control to systemic low-carbon transformation.It is necessary to adapt to and lead the transformation of the stage characteristics of economic development,optimize the strategic orientation in time and strengthen the strategic support,so as to work together to ensure the stable entry into the ranks of high-income countries during the 15th Five-Year period and the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries in 2035.

关 键 词：“十五五”时期 经济发展 战略趋向 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]