基于耦合理论的榆树坡煤矿井下事故多因素风险分析  

Multi-factor risk analysis of underground accidents in Yushupo Coal Mine based on coupling theory

作　　者：石元来 Shi Yuanlai(Shanxi Ningwu Yushupo Coal Industry Co.,Ltd.,Xinzhou 036700,China)

机构地区：[1]山西宁武榆树坡煤业有限公司,山西忻州036700

出　　处：《煤炭科技》2025年第2期111-115,共5页Coal Science & Technology Magazine

摘　　要：煤矿事故由单因素风险引发的案例较少,大多数事故由因素风险耦合导致事故发生。因此,对煤矿事故的耦合风险进行度量,能够有效控制煤矿安全事故。根据榆树坡煤矿大、小事故数据,提出了基于耦合理论的多因素风险度量模型,对风险耦合效应的大小进行度量。结果表明,人—环境—管理因素耦合是事故风险耦合中概率最大的;耦合因素的增加导致煤矿事故的风险值增加,采取相应的解耦措施可有效避免风险发生。There are relatively few cases of coal mine accidents caused by single factor risks,and most accidents are caused by coupled factor risks.Therefore,measuring the coupled risk of coal mine accidents can effectively control coal mine safety accidents.According to the data of major and minor accidents in Yushupo Coal Mine,a multi-factor risk measurement model based on the coupling theory was proposed to measure the magnitude of the risk coupling effect.The results show that human-environment-management factor coupling is the largest probability in the accident risk coupling;the increase of coupling factors leads to the increase of the risk value of coal mine accidents,and the risk can be effectively avoided by adopting corresponding decoupling measures.

关 键 词：煤矿事故 多因素风险 耦合理论 N-K模型 

分 类 号：TD77[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]