基于Copula函数的叶尔羌河流域气象干旱重现期分析  

Meteorological drought return period in the Yarkant River Basin based on copula function

作　　者：候宗民 HOU Zongmin(Xinjiang Survey and Design Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Co.Ltd,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2025年第2期23-26,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：以叶尔羌河流域为研究对象,采用3个气象站点1960—2022年逐月降水资料,计算标准化降水指数(SPI),结合游程理论提取干旱特征要素(包括干旱历时和干旱烈度),并结合Copula函数计算气象干旱重现期。结果表明:研究区在1960—2022年干旱发生频繁但旱情较轻,其中平均干旱历时为3.71个月,干旱烈度为4.44;Frank-Copula函数较Clayton-Copula和Gumbel-Copula函数拟合干旱特征变量历时和烈度效果最佳;51场气象干旱事件中联合重现期平均值为42.79年,同现重现期为116.24,其中最大联合重现期为500年左右,同现重现期为1300年左右。This study focuses on the Yarkand River Basin and utilizes monthly precipitation data from three meteorological stations spanning from 1960 to 2013.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)is calculated,and drought characteristic elements(including drought duration and severity)are extracted using run theory.Additionally,the Copula function is employed to calculate the recurrence period of meteorological drought.The results indicate the following:Frequent but relatively mild drought occurrences in the study area from 1960 to 2013,with an average drought duration of 3.71 months and a drought severity of 4.44;The Frank-Copula function demonstrates the best fitting effects for modeling drought characteristic variables of duration and severity compared to the Clayton-Copula and Gumbel-Copula functions;The average joint recurrence period for 48 meteorological drought events is 42.79 years,and the simultaneous recurrence period is 116.24 years.The maximum joint recurrence period is approximately 500 years,while the simultaneous recurrence period is around 1300 years.

关 键 词：历时 SPI 干旱 烈度 COPULA 重现期 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]