基于可靠性理论的农业水环境综合质量评价  

A method for evaluating comprehensive agricultural water environment quality based on the theory of reliability

作　　者：陈诚 CHEN Cheng(Key Laboratory of Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Emerging Contaminants of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市环境科学研究院生态环境部新污染物环境健康影响评价重点实验室,上海200233

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2025年第2期26-30,共5页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

基　　金：上海市农业科技创新项目(沪农科(I2023004);沪农科(I2023008))。

摘　　要：以南方平原河网地区某典型稻麦轮作农田为例,选取48个水质长期观测点,以近2年间开展的36次定点取样监测获得的2343个农业氮磷面源污染数据作为样本空间,引入可靠性理论进行水环境质量评价。结果表明:3类水质数据样本均呈正态分布,决定系数R~2大于0.994,为强正相关关系;氨氮和总磷实测浓度满足地表水环境质量标准V类水要求的可靠概率分别为76.12%和93.64%,硝态氮满足集中式生活饮用水地表水源地补充项目标准限制的可靠概率为95.85%。3类水质指标较现有的简单相除所得的达标率略低;其中氨氮最为明显,偏差达4.29%,研究成果可为农业水环境质量评价提供理论依据和技术支持。A more comprehensive evaluation of the agricultural water environment quality would thus be derived with the application of scientific water quality evaluation method.This study took the typical rice-wheat rotation fields in the southern plain river network region as an example.48 long-term water quality monitoring sites were selected.2343 agricultural non-point source pollution data of nitrogen and phosphorus derived by 36 spot sampling campaigns conducted in near 2 years were chosen as the sample space.The theory of reliability was introduced for water environment quality evaluation.The results indicated that the aforementioned water quality data samples were in normal distribution.The determination coefficient R2 was more than 0.994,exhibiting the relationship of strong positive correlation.The reliability probabilities of the measured concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total phosphorus meeting the V-class water quality of the surface water environment standard were 76.12%and 93.64%,respectively.The reliability probability of the measured concentrations of nitrate nitrogen meeting the supplementary item of surface water source of centralized domestic drinking water was 95.85%.The rates of these indices meeting standard were slightly lower than the values calculated according to the current method of simple ratio.The values of ammonium nitrogen were most evident and the deviation was 4.29%.The proposed research achievements could provide theoretical reference and tool support for the evaluation of agricultural water environment quality.

关 键 词：农业面源污染 水质监测 正态分布 峰态系数 可靠概率 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X832