气候变化下紫茎泽兰在我国的潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of Potential Distribution Area of Eupatorium adenophorum in China Under Climate Change

作　　者：卢禹君 胡支舰 田颖 虞巍 颜晓捷 LU Yujun;HU Zhijian;TIAN Ying;YU Wei;YAN Xiaojie(Zhejiang A&F University1,Institute of Forestry and biotechnology,Zhejiang,Hangzhou 311300,Zhejiang,China;Jinyun County Forestry Bureau,Lishui 321400,Zhejiang,China;Quzhou Wuxi River Drinking Water Source Conservation and management Center,Quzhou 324000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学林业与生物技术学院,浙江杭州311300 [2]缙云县林业局,浙江丽水321400 [3]衢州市乌溪江饮用水源保护管理中心,浙江衢州324000

出　　处：《浙江林业科技》2025年第2期26-32,共7页Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：利用最大熵MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,以紫茎泽兰Eupatorium adenophorum 2020—2023年的分布数据为基础进行潜在分布区预测。结果表明:紫茎泽兰在我国的潜在分布区主要位于华中和西南地区,面积约为172.55×10^(4)km^(2);影响其生存和分布的主导环境因子为最冷月最低温、最冷季降水量和温度季节性,在未来2041—2060年以及2061—2080年共享社会经济路径(SSP)SSP245和SSP585情景下,紫茎泽兰潜在分布区将会向南部蔓延,且分布区面积总体呈增加趋势。以上结果表明,要阻止紫茎泽兰在我国的蔓延,对已入侵范围区,必须开展科学防治;对于未发生入侵的潜在分布区和安全区,必须做好物种的检疫,强化对紫茎泽兰种群的防控。In this paper,the maximum entropy MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential distribution area based on the distribution data of Eupatorium adenophorum from 2020 to 2023.The results showed that the potential distribution area of E.adenophorum in China was mainly located in central and southwest China,with an area of about 172.55×10^(4)km^(2).The dominant environmental factors affecting its survival and distribution are the lowest temperature of the coldest month,the precipitation and temperature seasonality of the coldest season.In the future 2041−2060s and 2061−2080s,the shared social economic path(SSP)SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,the potential distribution area of E.adenophorum will spread to the south,and the overall trend of the distribution area will increase.In order to prevent the spread of E.adenophorum in China,scientific prevention and control must be carried out in the invaded areas.For the potential distribution areas and safe areas without invasion,it is necessary to quarantine the species and strengthen the prevention and control of the E.adenophorum population.

关 键 词：紫茎泽兰 MAXENT ARCGIS 环境因子 潜在分布区 

分 类 号：Q949.783.5[生物学—植物学]