气候变化下云锦杜鹃在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution of Rhododendron fortunei in China Under Climate Change

作　　者：李东宾 陈开超 许志斌 秦怡 何立平 徐栋斌 吴月燕[2] LI Dongbin;CHEN Kaichao;XU Zhibin;QIN Yi;HE Liping;XU Dongbin;WU Yueyan(Ningbo Forestry Development Center,Ningbo 315440,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang Wanli University,Ningbo 315100,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波市林业发展中心,浙江宁波315440 [2]浙江万里学院,浙江宁波315040

出　　处：《浙江林业科技》2025年第2期33-42,共10页Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：宁波市2025现代种业重大专项;浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ24C030002)(2021Z005)。

摘　　要：云锦杜鹃Rhododendron fortunei为中国特有山地花卉植物,基于收集的145个地理分布记录和筛选出的12个环境变量,利用ArcGIS软件与MaxEnt模型预测云锦杜鹃当前和未来不同气候情景下在中国的潜在适生区分布和变化,并分析影响其分布的主要环境变量,为云锦杜鹃的资源保护和栽培应用提供科学参考。结果表明:MaxEnt模型对云锦杜鹃适生区的预测结果精准,bio14(最干月份降水量)、Alt(海拔)、bio1(年均温)和SOC(土壤有机碳含量)是影响云锦杜鹃适生区分布的主要环境变量,当前云锦杜鹃的潜在适生区主要分布于中国南方省份的中高海拔山地区域,适生面积为12.13×10^(4)km^(2);在未来气候变化背景下的2050s(2040—2060年)和2090s(2080—2100年)时期,作为山地植物的云锦杜鹃,其潜在适生区将急剧收缩和破碎化,分布质心北移。Rhododendron fortunei is a unique mountain flower plant in China.Based on 145 collected geographical distribution records and 12 screened environmental variables,the potential suitable distribution and changes of R.fortunei in China under current and future different climate scenarios were predicted by using ArcGIS software and MaxEnt model,and the main environmental variables affecting its distribution were analyzed.It provides a scientific reference for the resource protection and cultivation application of R.fortunei.The results showed that the MaxEnt model was accurate in predicting the suitable distribution of R.fortunei.Bio14(Precipitation of driest month),Alt(Altitude),bio1(Annual mean temperature)and SOC(Soil organic carbon)were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of the suitable distribution of R.fortunei.At present,the potential suitable distribution of R.fortunei is mainly distributed in the middle-high altitude mountain area of southern China,and the suitable distribution is 12.13×10^(4)km^(2).In the 2050s and 2090s under the background of future climate change,as a mountain plant,the potential suitable distribution of R.fortunei will significantly contract and fragm,and the distribution center of mass will move northward.

关 键 词：云锦杜鹃 气候变化 潜在适生区 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]