杉木在浙江省的适生区分析  

Analysis of Suitable Habitats for Cunninghamia lanceolata in Zhejiang Province Under the Context of Climate Change

作　　者：赵斌 焦洁洁[2] 范建忠 周林明 傅俊杰 江波[2] 郑海东 姚良锦 ZHAO Bin;JIAO Jiejie;FAN Jianzhong;ZHOU Linming;FU Junjie;JIANG Bo;ZHENG Haidong;YAO Liangjin(Wencheng County Forestry Bureau,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325300;Zhejiang Academy of Forestry,Hangzhou 310023,China;Jiande Forestry Headquarters,Zhejiang Jiande 311600;Jingning She Autonomous County Ecological Forestry Development Center,Jingning,Zhejiang 323500)

机构地区：[1]文成县林业局,浙江温州325300 [2]浙江省林业科学研究院,浙江杭州310023 [3]建德市林业总场,浙江建德311600 [4]景宁畲族自治县生态林业发展中心,浙江景宁323500

出　　处：《浙江林业科技》2025年第2期43-51,共9页Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQ23C030001)。

摘　　要：在气候变化的背景下,植物的潜在分布区域将经历改变,因此有必要预测气候变化对植物地理分布格局的影响。本研究以浙江省为研究区域,基于1574个杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata分布数据和13个生境数据,采用最大熵(Maximum Entropy)进行了杉木在当前气候情景下的潜在适生区预测,并研究了不同生境条件下杉木的最优适生区。研究构建了15个潜在分布模型,通过重复试验得到的平均受试者工作特征曲线面积(Area under the receiving operator curve,AUC)值为0.797,标准偏差为0.011,预测结果较好。根据模型预测,杉木在浙江的适生区(适生值>0.05)总面积为7.08×10^(4)km^(2),其中高适生区、中适生区、低适生区面积分别为1.79×10^(4)km^(2)、2.80×10^(4)km^(2)和2.50×10^(4)km^(2)。海拔和最湿月降水量是影响杉木分布的重要因素。杉木的最适生境通常位于海拔1200~1400 m,最湿月降水量为320 mm,气温年较差在30℃,最冷月最低温在−1℃的区域。本研究评估气候、土壤等因素对杉木分布和生长的限制,阐明了杉木在浙江省的最优培育区,为杉木的培育和经营提供了理论支撑。Amid climate change,the potential distribution areas of plants are expected to shift,necessitating predictions about the impact of climate change on plant geographical distribution patterns.This study used Zhejiang Province as a case study,utilizing 1,574 distribution data points of Cunninghamia lanceolata and 13 habitat-related datasets.By employing the MaxEnt ecological niche model,the research predicted the potential suitable areas for Cunninghamia lanceolataunder current climatic scenarios and assessed the optimal suitable areas under different habitat conditions.Cunninghamia lanceolata Fifteen potential distribution models were constructed,and the average AUC value from repeated experiments was 0.797 with a standard deviation of 0.011,indicating high prediction reliability.According to the model,the total suitable area for Cunninghamia lanceolata in Zhejiang is 7.08×10^(4)km^(2),with high,medium,and low suitability areas covering 1.79×10^(4)km^(2),2.80×10^(4)km^(2),and 2.50×10^(4)km^(2),respectively.The results highlight that elevation and precipitation during the wettest month(bio13)are crucial factors influencing the distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata.The optimal habitat for Cunninghamia lanceolata is typically situated at elevations of 1200−1400 m,with a wettest month precipitation of 320 mm,an annual temperature range of 30℃,and the lowest temperature in the coldest month reaching^(−1)℃.By assessing climate,soil,and other factors restricting the distribution and growth of Cunninghamia lanceolata,this research elucidates the current and future optimal cultivation zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata under the context of ongoing climate warming.

关 键 词：MaxEnt模型 适生区 环境因素 物种分布 杉木 

分 类 号：S791.27[农业科学—林木遗传育种]