Potential effects of climate change on growth and the implications for conservation of the endangered Serbian spruce(Picea omorika(Pancic)Purk.)  

作　　者：Marko Kazimirovic Branko Stajic 

机构地区：[1]University of Belgrade,Faculty of Forestry,Kneza Viseslava 1,11030,Cukarica,Belgrade,Serbia

出　　处：《Forest Ecosystems》2025年第2期311-322,共12页森林生态系统(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the perennial project activities financed by National Park“Tara”(grants no.1159&1344);The research engagement of M.K.and B.S.was supported by the Ministry of Education,Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of the program technological development(grant no.200169);The work of M.K.was also supported by the Science Fond of the Republic of Serbia,grant no.6686;EO and in situ based information framework to support generating Carbon Credits in forestry-ForestCO2。

摘　　要：Understanding the impacts of climate change on the future growth of tree species is particularly important for conserving endemic species with limited geographic distributions,such as Serbian spruce(Picea omorika(Pancic)Purk.).This study describes an approach to assessing the effects of future climate conditions on the growth and the implications for future management to conserve this endangered species on the IUCN Red List.To investigate the climate-growth relationship,age structure and diameter growth trends,we have sampled 231 trees across 11 locations at National Park"Tara"in western Serbia.The existence of heterogeneous age structures suggests that Serbian spruce poses considerable potential for continual regeneration in stands with open canopy.Conducted dendroclimatological analysis exhibits exceptional coherence in growth patterns within populations(Rxy 0.67–0.78),allowing the established climate-sensitive mixed-effect model to achieve conditional R^(c)^(2)=0.683.It is revealed that the radial increment of Serbian spruce is dominantly regulated by water deficit in the summer season.The rainfall amount during the spring is another meaningful climatic factor for growth trends,while minimal winter temperatures and previous autumn water balance show varying influences.Finally,the growth projections under climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 foreseen reductions of up to one-third and almost half from the historical mean growth rate.The given estimations should be seen as a critical warning signal calling for immediate conversion from passive to active protection to preserve this unique species.

关 键 词：Serbian spruce Serbia Endangered species Climate-growth response Climate change Mixed-effect modelling 

分 类 号：S791.22[农业科学—林木遗传育种]