渔获量与自然死亡系数不确定性对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响  

Influence of catch and natural mortality uncertainty on Thunnus albacares stock assessment in the Indian Ocean

作　　者：张绍炜 戴小杰[1,2,3,4] ZHANG Shaowei;DAI Xiaoje(College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Erploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 201306,China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Eaploitation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋生物资源与管理学院,上海201306 [2]大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海201306 [3]国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海01306 [4]农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋渔业》2025年第2期141-152,共12页Marine Fisheries

基　　金：农业农村部远洋渔业管理技术支撑项目(21-0056)。

摘　　要：黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是印度洋金枪鱼渔业中的重要经济鱼种,其有效养护和管理对于维护海洋生态系统的平衡和促进可持续利用具有重要意义。根据1975—2020年渔获量、标准化单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)、年龄结构数据以及自然死亡系数、性成熟度、亲体-补充关系等生物学参数,使用年龄结构评估模型(ASAP)对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估,探究自然死亡系数和渔获量不确定性对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响。结果表明,自然死亡系数的变化对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估结果较为敏感,其中由最大观测年龄引起的自然死亡系数的变化尤为明显。此外,当渔获量观测误差(CV)增大时,评估所得最大可持续产量将减小,但其从0.10至0.15的变化对SSB影响较小。渔获量统计偏差的变化对捕捞死亡系数产生的影响极为有限,但会明显影响产卵亲体量、最大可持续产量、初始亲体量等参考点的结果。在本研究中,所有假设下的印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估结果都不容乐观(F_(2020)>F_(MSY),SSB_(2020)<SSB_(MSY)),这表明其已处于过度捕捞状态。未来在印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估中,应重视渔获量与自然死亡系数不确定性对其评估结果的影响,根据种群评估结果找寻捕捞与繁衍之间的平衡点,以有助于印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源的长效利用。Thunnus albacares holds significant importance in tuna fisheries in the Indian Ocean,and effective conservation and management is essential for maintaining the balance of marine ecosystems and promoting sustainable utilization.This study conducted a stock assessment of Thunnus albacares in the Indian Ocean based on annual catch,standardized CPUE(catch per unit effort),catch at age,natural mortality,maturity and stock-recruitment relationships,utilizing the age-structured assessment program(ASAP).The primary focus was on investigating the influence of natural mortality and catch data uncertainty on the stock assessment of the species.To estimate the natural mortality(M)of Thunnus albacares in the Indian Ocean,two models were applied,and both models were based on the maximum observed age(A_(max)):M=4.899A_(max)^(-0.916)and M=5.4/A_(max).The maximum observed ages selected for calculation included the global maximum observed age for Thunnus albacares(18.0 years)and the maximum observed age in the Indian Ocean(9.7 years).To explore the impact of statistical bias on stock assessment results,this paper assumed adjustments for catch reporting bias at three levels(10%,15%,20%).Additionally,given CV on the catch was the main influencing factor for catch observation error,a sensitivity analysis on catch observation error was conducted by assuming CV values of 0.10,0.15,and 0.20.The results indicated that changes in natural mortality significantly impacted the stock assessment outcomes of Thunnus albacares in the Indian Ocean,with variations in natural mortality due to the maximum observed age being particularly pronounced.When the maximum observed age amounted to 10.9 years,the assessment suggested a relatively optimistic stock status for the species.However,if age reached 18.0 years,the assessment presented a more pessimistic stock status.Concerning catch data observation error(CV),the study revealed that increasing CV diminished the estimated maximum sustainable yield(MSY),thereby affecting stock assessment results.In ter

关 键 词：自然死亡系数 渔获量 不确定性 年龄结构评估模型 资源评估 黄鳍金枪鱼 

分 类 号：S931[农业科学—渔业资源]