东北黑土区耕地生态承载力时空分异与可持续性分析  

Analysis of spatiotemporal divergence and sustainability of ecological carrying capacity of arable land in northeastern black soil area, China

作　　者：崔宁波[1] 肖扬 杨佳利 王婷 CUI Ningbo;XIAO Yang;YANG Jiali;WANG Ting(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2025年第4期954-964,共11页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(23BJY188,20BJY149)。

摘　　要：东北黑土区肩负保障国家粮食安全的重任。利用2006—2020年的面板数据,基于改进的三维耕地生态足迹模型,在修正耕地参数因子和核算耕地碳足迹的基础上,探究了东北黑土区耕地生态状况的时空格局演化,并借助生态盈亏、可持续利用指数、生态压力指数等指标研判东北黑土区耕地生态状况的可持续性。结果显示:在时序演变上,东北黑土区耕地生态足迹和生态承载力均呈现倒“V”型动态变化,耕地碳足迹呈现上涨态势。在空间演变上,东北黑土区的耕地生态足迹由南向北依次递增,耕地生态承载水平呈现“北高南低、东高西低”的分布格局,空间差异程度逐渐加深。在可持续性上,东北黑土区耕地的生态赤字局势初步显现,生态压力指数围绕0.8波动,总体呈现递增的趋势,黑土利用正逐步向不可持续方向发展。In China,the northeast black soil area shoulders the important responsibility of guaranteeing national food security.By using the panel data from 2006 to 2020,the spatial and temporal pattern of ecological status of arable land in the northeast black soil area was explored,based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model of arable land and the corrected parameter factors of arable land and the accounting of cropland carbon footprints,as well as the evaluation on the sustainability of ecological status of arable land in the northeast black soil area with the help of ecological deficit/surplus,sustainable utilization index,ecological pressure index,etc.It was shown that in terms of temporal evolution,the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of arable land in the northeast black soil area exhibited an inverted“V”dynamic change,while the carbon footprint of arable land showed a rising trend.In terms of spatial evolution,the ecological footprint of arable land in the northeast black soil area increased from south to north,and the ecological carrying capacity of arable land showed a distribution pattern of“high in the north and low in the south,high in the east and low in the west”,and the degree of spatial difference gradually deepened.In terms of sustainability,the ecological deficit situation of arable land in the northeast black soil area emerged,with the ecological pressure index fluctuating around 0.8,showing an overall increasing trend,and the utilization of black soil gradually developed in an unsustainable direction.

关 键 词：耕地 生态承载力 碳足迹 生态足迹 可持续性 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济] S158[农业科学—土壤学]