“成本强加”何以突变军事决战  

How Could“Cost-Imposition”Transform into a Military Showdown?

作　　者：张一飞 ZHANG Yifei(Institute of American Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2025年第3期107-131,157,158,共27页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院重大创新项目“人类命运共同体思想的历史文化根基研究”(项目编号:2023YZD049);中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目“中国式现代化涉美风险与挑战研究”(项目编号:ZKJC252503)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：尽管美国对中国实施的“成本强加”战略突变为军事决战是极小概率事件,但它绝不可成为国际关系和对外战略研究的视野盲区。作者以关于守成国与崛起国关系、“成本强加”战略、战争起因的相关研究为基础,提出关于守成国战略突变的三个变量:崛起国抗压能力、守成国内部高于国家认同的小集团身份认同的数量和守成国可以利用的“成本强加”抓手数量,三者越强/越多/越少,守成国越倾向于军事决战;反之,则越倾向于“成本强加”。东方古代的官渡之战与西方近代的普法战争前,守成国对崛起国的战略转变整体印证了上述三大假设。以此规律观诸美国对华战略转变的条件演变趋势,军事决战在未来某一时刻被列入战略选项清单,绝非无稽之谈。中国必须抓紧时间聚焦内部发展,夯实“持久战”的政治经济基础;同时,也要全面提升新时代备战打仗能力,并进一步凝聚和引领全球政治团结。Although it is highly unlikely that the“cost imposition”strategy implemented by the U.S.against China will abruptly escalate into military confrontation,it should by no means to become a blind spot in the study of international relations and foreign strategy.Based on existing studies of the“cost imposition”strategy,the causes of war,and the relationship between the established power and the rising power,this article introduces three independent variables:the resilience of the rising power,the number of internal group identities that undermine the cohesive national identity of the established power,and the number of effective“cost imposition”tools available to the established power.A stronger resilient capacity of the rising power,an increase in the number of subnational identity groups within the established power that outweigh national identity,and a decrease in the number of effective“cost imposition”tools may make the established power lean toward military confrontation;conversely,the established power may favor the“cost-imposition”strategy.Historical examples,such as the Battle of Guandu in ancient Chinese history and the Franco-Prussian War in modern Western history,have provided strong evidence for these three hypotheses regarding strategic shifts of the established power against the rising one.Considering the current U.S.strategy toward China,people cannot rule out the eventual military showdown as a strategic option of the U.S.in the future.China must focus on its internal development to consolidate the political and economic foundations of a possible“protracted war”.In addition,China should comprehensively enhance its war preparedness capacities in the new era,and intensify its efforts to forge global political solidarity.[Keywords]cost imposition,military showdown,established power,rising power,Sino-US relations Although it is highly unlikely that the“cost imposition”strategy implemented by the U.S.against China will abruptly escalate into military confrontation,it should by

关 键 词：成本强加 军事决战 守成国 崛起国 中美关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D822[政治法律—政治学]